Brinker International eyes 15.7% Q1 2026 revenue jump on Chili's momentum

Casual dining restaurant group Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT), owner of Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy, is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on October 29, with analysts watching whether momentum at its flagship Chili’s chain can offset continued weakness at Maggiano’s Little Italy. While growth is expected to slow from the rapid pace of recent quarters, analysts still forecast strong double-digit gains to start the year.

Visible Alpha consensus shows analysts expect robust year-on-year revenue growth of 15.7% to about $1.3 billion in Q1, buoyed by a projected 18% rise in Chili’s company-operated revenues (to $1.2 billion) and a 12% gain in its franchise revenues (to $13 million). By contrast, Maggiano’s is forecast to face softness: company-operated revenues are expected to fall 2.6% to $106 million, while franchise revenues are expected to decline 19.7% to $0.16 million.

On the same-store sales front, Chili’s remains the growth engine: company-operated units are forecast to deliver a strong 18.1% sales lift and franchised locations around 7.8%. Maggiano’s, however, looks set to slip by 0.8% on the company-operated side, reflecting persistent brand headwinds. Overall, system-wide same-store sales are projected to rise 15.1% for the quarter. The restaurant base is expected to total 1,630 units—1,161 company-operated and 469 franchised.

Despite the expectations of an upbeat start to the fiscal year, analysts expect growth to moderate sharply from Q2 onwards, with revenue increases of just 2–4% across the remaining quarters of fiscal 2026. The slowdown reflects tougher comparisons following last year’s surge in traffic at Chili’s, as well as lingering softness at Maggiano’s.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.