Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 8 September 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

The coming week’s data releases bring US inflation under the spotlight, with the UK economy also under scrutiny from GDP data. Eurozone policymakers will also gather to set interest rates.

As the next FOMC meeting on 16-17 September draws closer, key points of interest will likely be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on Thursday and consumer inflation expectations on Friday. While the annual change in CPI held at 2.7% in July, the core index rose 3.1%. Evidence of tariff-induced price hikes were again apparent, notably in accelerating price inflation for core goods, though the annual rate remained a relatively subdued 1.1%. Tariff effects are not yet showing up in some sectors, such as clothing and new vehicles, and shelter inflation has also moderated to act as a counterfoil to many tariff-linked price rises. Analysts will be keen to see how these key trends shifted in August.

While CPI will help assess the current inflation trend, policymakers will also want to see inflation expectations becoming more anchored. Although inflation expectations have cooled since April’s two-decade peak of 4.4%, they ticked up again to 3.5% in August, according to the University of Michigan’s survey. Widespread concerns about long-term inflation amid tariffs and questions over Fed independence mean the September update to expectations will be closely eyed by the bond markets in particular.

In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold when policymakers meet on Thursday, thanks to signs of improving economic growth and benign inflation, pushing attention to the UK instead, where the key data release is Friday’s update to GDP for July. With the UK’s fiscal position coming under added pressure from sluggish growth, and long-term borrowing costs rising to their highest since 1998, the government will be looking for some good news to add to a recent tentative brightening of the economic growth picture.

June’s GDP data had shown a surprisingly strong 0.4% uplift after two months of 0.1% declines. While it may be too much to ask for another strong monthly GDP rise in July, some additional encouragement that the underlying trend is improving has been provided by recent PMI data, which showed UK growth hitting the highest for a year in August.

Finally, equity market sentiment changes will be tracked by our Investment Manager Index. The prior (August) release, which showed renewed risk aversion, is available here.

US consumer sentiment will be eagerly awaited, especially in relation to inflation expectations.

The UK government will be hoping for some better news on the economy as GDP data are released for July