Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 29 September 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

Payrolls and PMIs to provide new policy path clues

US nonfarm payrolls provide the crescendo to a busy week for economy watchers which includes worldwide manufacturing PMI surveys, flash eurozone inflation numbers and monetary policy decisions in India and Australia.

The monthly US employment report will provide guidance on the likelihood of further rate cuts this year. The Fed not only cut interest rates for the first time this year at its September FOMC meeting, but also revealed a general expectation among policymakers that rates could be cut another two times this year. However, officials including Fed Chair Powell have since sought to stress that the path to lower rates is by no means certain. Further signs of a weakening jobs market will therefore be important in maintaining a dovish stance. Markets are expecting just 39,000 jobs to have been added in September after the 22,000 gain reported in August. Such low numbers are thought to be consistent with rising unemployment, though there’s an expectation among analysts that the jobless rate will hold at 4.3% for now. The payroll report will be preceded by job openings (JOLTS) data, jobless claims and the ADP private sector job count to give some additional clues as to the labour market’s health.

Insights into the global manufacturing economy’s health will meanwhile be provided by the worldwide PMI surveys. After August’s global PMI had hit a 14-month high, more recent flash PMI data have hinted at this performance losing steam as the boost to production and trade from the front-running of US tariffs fades. Besides these broader growth trends, developments on US factory prices will be key data to watch: September’s flash PMI numbers showed US input cost inflation remaining elevated due to tariffs, but selling price inflation moderated in one of the first signs from the survey that producers were struggling to pass these higher costs on to customers.

In Europe, the PMIs will be assessed alongside flash eurozone CPI inflation numbers for September, but both are likely to suggest inflation is still running at or close to the ECB’s 2% target. Also look out for eurozone unemployment data and UK mortgage approvals.

In APAC, central bank decisions in India and Australia are expected to see rates held steady as the former eyes faster than expected economic growth and the latter weighs up hotter than anticipated inflation.