Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 22 September 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

Flash PMI surveys to provide insights into growth, jobs and inflation

Flash PMI survey data will provide a key focus for the markets in the coming week, though Friday’s release of the US core PCE price index will also be eagerly awaited. Other releases of note include revised US GDP numbers, consumer confidence data for the US and Europe, plus US, home sales, durable goods orders and inventories

Early ‘flash’ PMI data will provide the first major snapshots of economic trends in September. Prior data showed especially strong growth in India accompanied by robust expansions in the US and Australia. More modest but strengthening upturns were meanwhile reported in the UK, Japan and – to a lesser extent – the eurozone.

A concern, however, is that some of the recent improvement in manufacturing growth globally has been fueled by the front-loading of shipments ahead of US tariffs. September’s factory PMIs will therefore be eyed to see if this boost is fading, and the extent to which rising domestic demand in economies such as Germany may be helping offset US trade issues. In France, the survey data will be eyed for the impact of political upheaval after the fall of the government, but in the UK the survey data will be important to gauge any ongoing impact of policy changes on both inflation and jobs. Higher employer tax and Minimum Wages have recently pushed up inflation and led to widespread UK job losses.

In the US, although the recent strength of the PMI’s current output index has bolstered the likelihood of the economy growing at a solid pace again in the third quarter, business confidence about the outlook has taken a knock, suggesting that that companies are becoming increasingly nervous about the outlook.

US PMI price data will also be eagerly awaited to assess tariff impacts. However, a further steer on the future path of US interest rates will also be provided on Friday by updated official inflation data. The publication of the Fed’s preferred measure of core PCE inflation follows mixed signals on recent price trends. While consumer price inflation picked up from 2.7% to 2.9% in August, wholesale prices showed a surprise 0.1% decline during the month. Softer inflation will likely be needed to open the door for further rate cuts in the months ahead. The last FOMC meeting, which saw the fed funds rate cut for the first time since December, showed policymakers were generally anticipating another two rate cuts by the end of the year, representing a more dovish stance than previously signalled.

Flash PMI surveys will be important to assess after recent data showed current output growth accelerating but confidence about future output deteriorating. Such a divergence is unusual, and the loss of optimism poses downside risks to the economic outlook.