Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 18 August 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

Flash PMI, Fed minutes and inflation data from the UK and Japan

August flash PMI will offer early insights into economic conditions across major developed economies on Thursday, while inflation data are due from the UK, Eurozone, Japan and Canada in the week. Fed minutes from the July meeting will also be keenly watched in a week where comments from central bankers are expected to be heard at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

Following the implementation of higher tariffs from August 7th, flash PMI data will be the first set of economic releases published for insights into any changes in economic conditions in the US. Specifically, prices, inventory and overall growth conditions will be among the key items in focus. Chiefly, the impact on prices will be scrutinised with relief having just been granted by lower-than-expected CPI data for July. Any increase in the PMI Output Prices Index from current levels would point to even higher inflationary pressures in the months to come and could pose additional threats to rate cut expectations. Additionally, on the manufacturing front, the question lies with the degree to which US inventory building activity may have reversed with early signs having already been present in July. Finally, the US had been an outperformer so far in the second and start of the third quarter, helping to support global growth. Whether this outperformance continued into August amid recent trade developments will be examined with the flash releases.

Besides the US, flash PMI data from other developed economies will also help to shed light on economic conditions at major trading partners. Business sentiment updates for India, another fast-growing economy in July, will also be in focus amid the threat of higher tariffs.

On the inflation front, the UK’s CPI data will be published midweek, with a higher headline reading expected, moving up the trajectory preluded by PMI prices data. The key will however be with the flash PMI prices indications with July’s data previously showing a renewed rise in inflationary pressure that had added uncertainty to further cuts by the Bank of England.

In APAC, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Bank Indonesia (BI) convene with a rate cut expected at the former meeting. Inflation data will also be due from Japan, Singapore and Malaysia, while Thailand updates second quarter GDP.

The US had outperformed major developed economies in recent months, buoyed in part by inventory building activity ahead of higher tariffs.

The UK PMI Output Prices data point to the likelihood for inflationary pressures to rise in the short-term before easing again into the end of the year.