ECONOMICS COMMENTARY — 08 Aug, 2025

Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 11 August 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

US CPI, UK GDP, RBA meeting and China activity data in focus

US inflation data will be front and centre in the new week, while GDP data are due from the UK and eurozone. Additionally, July activity data out of the US and mainland China will also be among the data highlights, and a central bank meeting takes place in Australia.

US CPI data for July will be the key economic data release in the new week as the market waits with bated breath for signs of rising inflation on the back of tariffs. While tariff developments so far (with added higher tariffs from August 7th and the newest threat of a 100% chip tariffs), appear to promise higher inflation, US headline consumer price inflation has remained under 3.0% in the second quarter. That said, S&P Global US PMI data which preludes the trend for CPI have hinted at rising inflation going into the second half of 2025. The upcoming CPI release will therefore help to confirm whether prices have started to take off in July. This will be crucial for monetary policy as the Fed retains a wait-and-see attitude amid potential volatility with prices.

Meanwhile, July’s services PMI data were released to provide some good news, showing that an acceleration of services activity growth helped to offset the slowdown in manufacturing. This enabled global growth to unfold at the fastest pace so far this year. Although better service sector conditions were also observed for the UK and eurozone as compared with manufacturing, the overall paces of growth at the start of the third quarter were little changes from Q2, and we will be watching the official second quarter GDP releases for both regions for confirmation of near-neutral growth.

More detailed sector data released at the start of August also revealed that the technology and financial sectors led growth, both globally and in the US. The outperformance here ought to keep these two sectors in favour among money managers though the latest chips tariff threat adds uncertainty for the tech sector. Any changes in investors’ sentiment will be scrutinised with the August S&P Global Investment Manager Index update on Tuesday.

In APAC, the Reserve Bank of Australia convene for their August meeting with a rate cut on the table. Highlights for the week also include industrial production and retail sales data from mainland China with the latest S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI indicating a slight weakening of manufacturing sector conditions in July.

S&P Global US PMI data signalled that average selling prices increased at the fastest pace since August 2022, which is indicative of CPI rising above the Fed’s target in the coming months.

Detailed US Sector PMI output data showed the technology and financials sector outperformed at the start of the third quarter.


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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

Read our latest PMI commentary here.

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