Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 1 September 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

US non-farm payrolls and worldwide PMIs

The coming week builds up to Friday’s US non-farm payroll release, set to provide a key signal for Fed policy, but also includes worldwide PMI data from S&P Global as well as the ISM reports and a slew of official data across the world ranging from eurozone inflation to Brazil’s GDP.

Perhaps the final test for an interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September will be the monthly employment report, and particularly the nonfarm payroll count. The Fed has a dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and ensuring price stability. While it seems to be growing more comfortable with the view that any tariff-related lift in inflation will be modest or temporary, it has grown more concerned about the labour market.

To recap on recent data, the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards, at just 4.2%, but jobs growth has slowed. Just 106k jobs were added in total over the three months to July, making that the worst spell of job creation since 2010 if the pandemic is excluded. Some of this reflects DOGE-related government job losses, but private sector job gains have also been weak, totalling just 155k over the past three months. While this is up from a post-pandemic low of 139k seen in the same period last year, it is low by recent standards: 2023 and 2024 saw 142k jobs added each month on average. Any further disappointment in the August data will fuel rate cut odds after Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to such a move at his Jackson Hole speech.

Worldwide PMI data will meanwhile provide an updated view on global economic growth and inflation trends in August. While flash PMI data signalled a broad-based pick up in developed world economic growth in August, some of this looks to have been driven by tariff front running. Emerging market growth had meanwhile weakened slightly in July, as a faster expansion of service sector activity was offset by a renewed, tariff-related, manufacturing downturn.

With August seeing ongoing uncertainties in relation to both sector tariffs and bilateral trade deals with the US, (albeit some concerns around worst case scenarios have eased since April), the performance of manufacturing economies and detailed sector PMI trends will be closely monitored. In addition, broader service sector conditions – which are more closely aligned with financial market conditions in many cases – will provide especially important signals for central bank policy.

The US labour market comes into focus with the monthly employment report.

PMI data will meanwhile provide an update on global economic trends