Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 28 July 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

Payrolls, GDP, inflation and PMIs accompanied by key policy meetings

The coming week sees top tier data releases in the form of GDP and inflation numbers from the US and Eurozone, plus US non-farm payrolls and the worldwide manufacturing PMIs. Central bank meetings include the FOMC, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada.

Although monetary policy setters in the US and Canada are expected to retain an easing bias, while a hiking bias is more likely to be evident in Japan, policymakers from all three camps are likely to follow the ECB in stressing a ‘wait and see’ approach to interest rates. In all cases, more clues are probably needed before rates change, both in terms of assessing the resilience of their economies to the disruptions caused by US tariff policy, as well as the impact of these tariffs on inflation in the US.

Some help from an economic growth perspective will be provided by the second quarter GDP data for the US and Eurozone. However, trends have been hard to read lately due to tariffs. While the front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs caused a net trade drag in the US in the first quarter, resulting in a drop in GDP, the eurozone saw a corresponding export bounce, boosting GDP. No doubt tariffs will have therefore created more noise in the second quarter GDP numbers. Markets are expecting a 2.5% rate in the US with a flat reading in the eurozone, but PMI data – which tend to give a reliable reading in underlying growth trends – point to resilient 1.3% annualized GDP growth in the US and a 0.1% quarterly rise in the eurozone.

More recent flash PMI data indicated US economic outperformance gaining ground in July, albeit with the eurozone also picking up momentum to record the strongest output gain for nearly a year. The PMIs also point to strong job gains and above-target inflation in the US, with the latter starting to creep into the official CPI numbers. PCE data will therefore be eagerly awaited for more inflation signals, as are non-farm payroll data. Consensus currently points to a jobs gain of just over 100k after a 147k rise in June.

The manufacturing PMI data from both S&P Global and ISM will also provide up to date steers on industrial trends in the US and around the world as producers grapple with the rapidly changing tariff environment. The focus will be initially drawn to Asia, and in particular mainland China where analysts will be eager to see the play off between US tariff policy and increased domestic stimulus.

Flash PMIs not only indicated the US outperformance gaining further ground in July, but also showed the US continuing to report markedly higher price pressures than the other major developed economies.