Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 14 July 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

Tariff impact on inflation and growth under scrutiny

A raft of top tier economic data plus the start of the earnings season will provide important indications of the health of the US economy in the week ahead. GDP data will also give a timely update on the resilience of the mainland Chinese economy while UK inflation numbers will be assessed for policy implications.

Markets are expecting US inflation to have accelerated in June on the back of tariff-related price rises. Headline and core consumer price inflation rose just 0.1% in May, but these rates are anticipated to have lifted to 0.3% in June according to Reuters consensus. Producer prices are likewise expected to show a pick up, reflecting rising cost trends evident in the business survey data over the past two months. Higher inflation will encourage FOMC policymakers to hold off cutting interest rates, though two rate cuts are widely anticipated by the end of the year as the initial uplift in inflation from tariffs fades and the economy slows. However, lower than expected readings will pile pressure on the FOMC to deliver earlier rate cuts.

The health of the US economy will also be gauged via retail sales, industrial production and inventory data. Sales are likely to have risen after a sharp (0.9%) fall in May, and industrial output to have steadied after having also fallen 0.3% in May. Inventories meanwhile likely rose as firms stockpiled goods ahead of tariff-related price concerns.

The pace of economic growth in mainland China over the second quarter, a period typified by heightened tariff uncertainty, will meanwhile come under scrutiny. Markets are expecting GDP growth to have slowed from an annual pace of 5.4% to 5.2%. Higher frequency monthly industrial production and retail sales data will also be released to give a more detailed insight into how growth drivers in the economy are evolving after government stimulus measures were implemented during June.

Similarly, the impact of recent tariff changes will be sought from eurozone industrial production numbers.

Clues as to the next policy move from the Bank of England will meanwhile be sought from the latest inflation numbers. Consumer price inflation was running at an above target 3.5% in May, with policymakers keen to see if recent hikes in the minimum wage and National Insurance contributions could feed through to stickier inflation. The policy impact on the jobs market will also be highlighted by the latest monthly recruitment survey data in the UK.

Consumer price data are updated for the US and UK in the coming week. Tariff-related price increases mean that inflation pressures have intensified in the US, according to PMI survey data, but moderated in the UK.