Private equity investment in metals and mining sector soars on outsize deal

The value of private equity and venture capital metals and mining deals in the first quarter reached $9.09 billion, significantly higher than all full-year totals in the previous five years except 2023, setting 2026 on track for a multiyear high, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

➤ Private equity and venture capital investment in the metals and mining sector in 2026 looks set to sharply reverse the pattern of declining deal value, primarily due to a single US government-private equity partnership deal in the first quarter for battery metals.

➤ Government involvement in the mining sector is expected to intensify due to greater priority given to securing critical mineral supply chains.

➤ Steel and gold were the most favored targets in 2025, perhaps due to an increased focus on decarbonization and the high gold prices.

Driving the record deal value total is one transaction: the planned $9 billion acquisition of a 40% stake in the Mutanda Group and Kamoto Copper Co. SARL copper-cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo by an investor group comprising Orion Resource Partners (USA) LP and US International Development Finance Corp. from Glencore PLC.

The deal involves critical minerals and government participation alongside private equity, a combination that is expected to continue.

Critical minerals are expected to have "much more governmental added colors," according to Antti Grönlund, managing director for private equity at Appian Capital Advisory.

Current discussions around critical minerals have tended to focus on themes such as "industrial strength, even industrial viability, topics of sovereignty, the security, defense," Grönlund said. As well as the broader process of electrification for electric vehicles and data center-driven power infrastructure demand, some critical minerals have defense applications, hence the importance of China's increased export controls in January on such dual-use materials in response to US tariffs.

Total private and public deal value in the sector to date in 2026 is $40.32 billion. The Mutanda deal increased the share of private equity in the first quarter to 22.5%, more than double the previous peak in 2023 and significantly higher than the 1.7% share achieved in 2025.

Private equity deal volume stayed roughly constant from 2021 to 2025, and the percentage of private equity deals relative to overall transactions has been within a narrow range, indicating that 2026 is likely to be a standout year.

– Download a spreadsheet with data featured in this story. – Read a breakdown of private equity investment in February, the month the DRC copper deal was announced. – Explore more trends in global private equity dealmaking.

Commodity breakdown

Four of the top 10 private equity deals in 2025 targeted the steel industry, accounting for the top three spots, with deals across the established steel manufacturing centers of the US and China, as well as in the emerging Middle East. The steel industry was brought to the forefront by the EU's then-forthcoming implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

High gold prices also drew investor attention, making the metal the second-most-targeted commodity on the top 10 list.

Difference between public majors and private equity

According to Grönlund, private equity's timeline is more accelerated than that of public companies. With an average fund life cycle of a decade, private equity firms need to stay on track to "make the change, create the value and then be able to exit later on."

Public corporate acquirers might focus more on acquiring existing assets to maintain steady production of a particular mineral, especially in a long-standing portfolio where some resources are beginning to deplete.

In a high-price environment, smaller public companies might have ability to transact based on stronger valuations, enabling them to "bring new projects into [their] fold, but that doesn't necessarily mean that a lot will happen with those projects," Grönlund said. And the high prices might bring more investor interest in the sector from new private players.

Emma Le Ster, vice president of finance and investment at La Mancha Resource Capital LLP, a mining company turned investment fund heavily focused on gold mining, said that the relationship between price and funding activity is complex.

According to Le Ster, La Mancha's strategy is more about industrial value creation than short- or medium-term price-driven moves, by identifying a stranded or underperforming asset, turning it around to become a "regional champion" through consolidation with other nearby projects. And that value creation comes from early investment in a project that passes through production milestones, increasing its net asset value and providing a good return on the early investment.

Given the increased focus on critical minerals during a turbulent time for geopolitics and for markets, it remains unclear whether the previous models for creating value are broken or need to be refined.

Continued geopolitical turbulence is likely to keep critical minerals and safe-haven gold in the spotlight for both public companies and their private equity and venture capital counterparts in 2026 and beyond.

Please note that aggregates from prior reports will not match this report, as historic deal values have been inflation-adjusted to 2025 US dollars for easier comparison. Also, retroactive adjustments were made for additional disclosures, late deal announcements or deal terminations.