Renewable energy developers in the US continue to power through a challenging policy environment under the Trump administration, with some companies accelerating plans to beat tighter tax incentive timelines.
The 10 largest owners of planned solar and wind projects intend to add 102.6 GW over the next five years, comprising 68.0 GW of solar and 34.6 GW of wind, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
Planned solar capacity additions for the five-year period rose from 64.0 GW four months ago, while planned wind capacity declined from about 36.0 GW, the data shows.
While not all plans in the deeper project pipeline will materialize, the largest owners and developers have broken ground on 10.8 GW of solar and 12.8 GW of wind capacity as of Sept. 18.
Much larger volumes are under development across the broader solar and wind sectors. The utility-scale solar pipeline includes 269 GW through 2030, including 40.3 GW under construction and 7.76 GW in advanced development, according to Market Intelligence data. The wind pipeline includes approximately 79.2 GW through 2030, with 21.5 GW under construction and 9.6 GW in advanced development.
"We expect a significant pull forward in solar capacity additions as project developers seek to capitalize on tax credits," Sam Huntington, director of North American power and renewables analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, wrote in a Sept. 2 paper. "We have downgraded [our] wind outlook due to regulatory uncertainty and other barriers."
Developers face an accelerated end for key federal tax credits under President Donald Trump's new budget bill, enacted July 4. On Aug. 15, the Treasury Department issued guidance on how projects can remain qualified for tax credits by starting construction, following the removal of the 5% safe harbor rule. The administration has also taken actions to hinder renewable energy development on federal lands.
"Policy certainty is important to all business investment and energy development is no different," Woody Rubin, chief development officer for AES Corp.'s renewables business, said in an email. "It is critical that policy be durable and predictable to provide the continuity that the industry, businesses and ratepayers all rely on to ensure that energy projects can get built to meet the growing demand and maintain grid stability, continuing needed investment in local communities."
NextEra Energy Inc. remains the largest owner of planned solar capacity through 2029 and also has the third-largest wind pipeline, Market Intelligence data shows. In total, NextEra's solar and wind pipeline of planned capacity additions over the next five years is approximately 18.4 GW.
Several major NextEra projects are under construction in Texas, the largest US utility-scale solar market, including the 310-MW Hickerson Solar Project and the 250-MW Buzios Solar Project. NextEra also has broken ground on capacity additions across the Midwest and South, such as the first 250-MW of the planned 400-MW Sebree Solar facility in Kentucky and the 200-MW Appleseed Solar Project in Indiana.
"Importantly, renewables and storage are ready now and can provide much-needed electricity and capacity. But in order to achieve our objectives, we will need to continue to navigate a challenging regulatory and policy environment," John Ketchum, chair, president and CEO of NextEra, said during the company's July 23 earnings call. "Although there is more certainty with the passage of the bill, we will need to manage that against the backdrop of executive orders, agency rulemakings, tariffs and trade actions."
Invenergy LLC has the second- and fourth-largest pipelines for wind and solar, respectively, with a combined 10.56 GW of planned capacity additions through 2029, according to Market Intelligence data.
Other top-10 owners of renewable energy assets under development in the US include Electricité de France SA, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd., KKR & Co. Inc., RWE AG and AES.
"Renewables have the fastest time to power and we anticipate that they will continue to be cost-competitive with other sources of new build, and therefore do not expect any slowdown in demand from our customers," AES' Rubin said.
Enlight Renewable Energy, which owns US developer Clenera LLC, echoed that sentiment.
"The fundamentals of the US energy market are creating strong tailwinds for Clenera," Itay Banayan, chief corporate development officer at Enlight, said in an email. "Demand for power continues to rise from data centers and the broader electrification trend; utility-scale solar power is one of the most competitive ways to meet this need. We see significant potential in battery storage, which complements our renewable energy projects and enhances grid reliability."
The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, through its ownership of power producer and energy infrastructure developer Pattern Energy Group LLC, has the largest pipeline of planned wind projects through 2029, totaling 7.4 GW, Market Intelligence data shows.
These projects include several SunZia wind projects, which are under construction in New Mexico and expected to be in service in 2026.
Wind energy development in the US, particularly offshore wind development, has faced obstacles during the second Trump administration.
In January, Trump issued an executive order targeting wind projects. And in mid-April, the Trump administration paused Equinor ASA's offshore Empire Wind 1 in New York, though it reversed course in May.
Headwinds have accelerated in recent months.
The administration in August issued a stop-work order on Ørsted A/S's 704-MW Revolution Wind Offshore project off the coast of Rhode Island and Connecticut, which increased industry concerns. The project was already 80% complete.
In response to the stop-work order, Ørsted said Aug. 23 that it was "evaluating all options to resolve the matter expeditiously," including engagement with permitting agencies and potential legal proceedings.
In August, the administration indicated plans to pull its approval of a major US Wind Inc. project offshore of Maryland. The administration is also reconsidering its approval of operations and construction for the up to 2.4-GW SouthCoast Wind Energy Offshore Project, off the coast of Massachusetts.
In addition, the administration is moving to block Avangrid Inc.'s New England Wind 1 and New England Wind 2 projects, also off the coast of Massachusetts. Avangrid is a subsidiary of Spanish company Iberdrola SA.
In early September, several Northeast governors urged the administration to continue allowing offshore wind development.
Market Intelligence considers a project as announced when it has a listing in an interconnection queue with an accompanying public announcement or permitting action. A project is considered in early development after permitting begins. For a project to be considered advanced development, it must meet two out of five criteria: financing is in place, power purchase agreements are signed, equipment is secured, required permits are approved or a contractor has signed on to the project. A project is under construction when building activity begins; site preparation does not qualify a project for this status.
