Critical mineral imports surge in Q2 2025 as US manufacturers brace for tariffs

US imports of critical minerals surged in the second quarter of 2025 as manufacturers built inventories ahead of a possible tariff.

Imports reached 265,834 metric tons in that period, up 57.3% from a year earlier and 67.7% quarter to quarter, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. The data includes lithium, cobalt, rare earths, graphite, and other niche metals.

Companies are scrambling as the White House investigates US reliance on imported critical minerals under a Section 232 tariff probe. The review covers nickel, cobalt, lithium and 17 rare earth elements, among other minerals which the US currently has little to no domestic production capacity.

"The lack of clarity in the administration’s communication of tariffs and their application has intensified the pressure to stockpile critical minerals," Nick Trickett, research and analysis associate director at Energy Capital Insights, a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, told Platts. "The assumption is that the final determinations will be designed to incentivize bringing in feedstock if it is smelted and refined domestically, but policy has been so knee-jerk and, at times, incoherent, uncertainty dominates importers’ considerations."

Supply shifts

South Africa emerged as the largest source of US critical minerals imports, replacing Mexico, with 104,878 metric tons, or 39.5% of the total. Gabon followed with 53,618 metric tons or 20.2% of the total. China, the world's largest processor of critical minerals, saw its share of US imports decline to 5.9% or 15,768 metric tons, down 18.2% from the first quarter.

If the Section 232 investigation determines these imports impair national security, President Donald Trump could impose tariffs as soon as October. The US has imposed 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum under this section of the law, though a copper tariff announced in July exempted copper cathode.

Processed lithium imports, including lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, rose 54% year over year to 5,713 metric tons and went up 6.9% compared to the first three months of 2025. The materials are key for electric vehicle battery production.

Argentina accounted for 51.2% of second-quarter US processed lithium materials imports with 2,925 metric tons, while Chile supplied 48% with 2,745 metric tons.

Canada exported 7,081 metric tons of refined lithium compounds, representing 54.5% of US imports. Imports from China fell quarter over quarter from 29.5% or 4,833 metric tons in the first quarter, to 19% or 2,450 metric tons in the second quarter. Refined lithium imports decreased 24.2% year over year.