Trade tensions cloud Jenoptik’s 2025 outlook

German optical-electronics specialist Jenoptik AG (FWB: JEN) has trimmed its full-year 2025 guidance, warning that both existing and potential new trade barriers are weighing on demand. Analysts now forecast group revenues to fall around 3% year-on-year to €1.1 billion, as the ripple effects of recently imposed US tariffs dampen not only direct customer orders but also the health of the global economy.

The semiconductor & advanced manufacturing division—which contributes about 44% of total revenue—is expected to bear the brunt of the downturn, with sales forecast to drop approximately 7% to €455 million. This reflects a pronounced slump in semiconductor demand, particularly in lithography equipment.

Meanwhile, the metrology & production solutions segment (c. 20% of revenue) is expected to decline roughly 3% to €215 million, while the global finance operations (c. 5% of revenue) face a steeper downturn, anticipated to shrink by about 15%.

On a brighter note, growth is forecast in some smaller units: biophotonics is expected to expand by roughly 6%, and smart-mobility solutions by around 3%. However, these gains are unlikely to offset the broader weakness across Jenoptik’s core divisions.

Order intake is forecast to decline 2.8% in 2025—still a setback, but less severe than the 5.9% drop in 2024 and the 7.9% decline recorded in 2023. The improvement suggests that demand may be stabilizing, though growth momentum remains fragile heading into 2026.

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