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Summary
March saw a rally in precious metals prices that continued through most of April, as the troubled global geopolitical scene is trumping macroeconomic concerns. Despite the US dollar also strengthening, the gold price broke through the $2,300 per ounce mark on strong safe-haven demand. On the other hand, industrial metals prices were more subject to fundamentals, with threats of supply squeezes — smelter curbs, shipping delays — providing some support. Going into the second quarter of the year, most metals price forecasts are on an upswing, although prone to volatility given uncertainty around the timing of US Fed rate cuts, the global macroeconomic recovery, and persistent geopolitical instability.
Exploration activity continued to slow down in the first quarter of 2024, even falling below lows recorded at the height of the pandemic in early 2020. While all metrics have declined, the steep decline in the number of significant financings from juniors and intermediates have weighed down the activity index the most, as the cost of financing remains high, despite firmer prices for some commodities, particularly gold. Drilling activities declined more modestly compared to the previous quarter but is at its lowest since June 2020 quarter.
Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the March 2024 quarter, provide our near-term outlook and discuss key trends and topics:
- Commodity price trends, drivers, and estimates
- Mergers and acquisitions, mining financing
- Exploration and development metrics
Moderator
S&P Global Energy
Mark Ferguson
S&P Global Energy
Director, Head of Non-ferrous Markets, Metals & Mining Research
Mark Ferguson is the Head of Non-ferrous Markets with the Metals & Mining Research group at S&P Global Energy. Having worked for previous iterations of the division since 2004, he has extensive experience in producing exploration and supply-side studies and topical research for the metals & mining sector.
Mark currently leads the nonferrous metals markets team providing clients with 10-year forecasts for supply, demand and prices, covering base and precious metals. Amid shifting government policies, trade flows, macroeconomic trends, and energy transition efforts, he guides the team’s responsive research in support of the global metals and mining industry. Mark holds an MSc in Earth Sciences from Dalhousie University, Canada.
Speaker
S&P Global Energy
S&P Global Energy
Paul Manalo
S&P Global Energy
Senior Principal Analyst, Mining Studies & Mine Economics
Paul has been a member of Metals and Mining research team of S&P Global Energy for more than 8 years. His team is involved in the annual publication of Corporate Exploration Strategies that analyzes global trends in exploration. He also works on the group's monthly Industry Monitor and focuses on keeping track of financing and capital raising activities of mining companies.Prior to joining S&P, Paul also managed different research groups that looked at various industries such as retail and logistics. He majored in Philosophy with a minor degree in Political Science from the University of the Philippines.
S&P Global Energy
Althea Liwanag
S&P Global Energy
Research Analyst
Althea is a Mine Economics Analyst for the Research - Metals and Mining team in Manila since 2019.
Althea is a Mine Economics Analyst for the Research - Metals and Mining team in Manila since 2019. She creates and updates financial models of mostly gold and silver mines found across the globe; and writes research articles about the mining industry focused on its economics.
Prior to joining the team, she was a site-based mining engineer who gained mine planning and contract management experiences in coal and nickel-iron mines in the Philippines. She earned her BS in Mining Engineering from the University of the Philippines and is a licensed Mining Engineer in the country.
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