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Summary
The final quarter of 2025 was marked by persistent volatility and shifting policy dynamics across the metals and mining sector. Elevated inflation, evolving trade policies, and renewed geopolitical tensions created an environment of uncertainty for producers and consumers alike.
Despite this backdrop, metals markets strengthened meaningfully. Precious metals rallied sharply, reflecting risk aversion and macro hedging, while mining equities delivered strong gains across most major exchanges. Strategic minerals remained central to global negotiations, culminating in a cautious U.S.–China détente that included partial rollback of tariffs and a temporary easing of restrictions on rare earths. These policy shifts unlocked new project activity and prompted governments to deepen support for domestic supply chains through targeted investments and price stabilization mechanisms, highlighting the strategic urgency to secure energy transition metals.
Industry consolidation accelerated, highlighted by landmark M&A deals such as those involving Anglo American and Teck Resources, along with growing speculation about a Rio Tinto and Glencore tie-up. Exploration budgets edged lower, with gold and copper holding up better than other commodities; meanwhile, Canada remained the global leader in exploration activity. Grassroots exploration budgets sank to a record-low share, underscoring a shift in focus toward late-stage projects and raising concerns about the long-term pipeline.
Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the December 2025 quarter, provide our near-term outlook and discuss these key trends and topics:
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges
- Commodity price trends, mine costs and emissions
- M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Jason Holden
Senior Principal Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
Jason is a Senior Mining Analyst working within the Metals and Mining Team in London. His primary focus is building asset level production and discounted cash flow models of mining operations across the globe, and writing associated research articles. He is responsible for compiling and updating the platinum group metals supply estimates and has been heavily involved in the expansion of coverage of Chinese copper, gold, zinc and iron ore assets.
Prior to joining the team in 2018, he worked directly in the mining industry gaining experience in exploration geology and resource development. He was part of the discovery team of the Wodgina iron ore deposit in Australia and worked on the Lumwana copper project in Zambia. He also spent a year as a Mining Analyst in investment focused role with China Non-Ferrous Metals International Mining, in Beijing.
Jason holds a BSc (hons) in Applied Geology from Camborne School of Mines, and an MSc in Metals and Energy Finance from Imperial College London. He is a fellow of the Geological Society of London, and a member of the Society of Economic Geologists.
S&P Global Energy
Luiz Amaral
Senior Analyst, Metals & Mining Research
Luiz Amaral is a Senior Analyst in Metals and Mining Research at S&P Global, bringing a robust blend of technical geological expertise and industry-oriented analytical capability. With an M.Sc. in Economic Geology and professional registration as a P.Geo, he has built his career across multiple continents, contributing to projects in Canada, Brazil, Peru, Kazakhstan and Australia.
Luiz’s exploration background includes leading multidisciplinary drilling programs, advancing gold projects in structurally complex terrains and supporting due diligence evaluations. His exploration work in the Abitibi region involved contributing to new ore zone discoveries and drilling campaigns that delivered high‑grade gold intercepts and strengthening the geological understanding of mineral systems. His experience incorporates concept-stage studies through full feasibility assessments, integrating structural geology, geochemistry, and machine‑learning‑assisted exploration tools, building a robust technical foundation for discovery‑focused work.
S&P Global Energy
Monica Ramirez
Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
Monica Ramírez is an Analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Mine Economics and Emissions team, based in Mexico City. Her expertise lies in cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis of mining operations, with experience across a range of commodities including copper, zinc, gold, and more. Her work focuses on the development of mine-level cost and GHG emissions models to support economic and emissions benchmarking of mining assets. Prior to joining S&P Global, Monica worked at Wood Mackenzie as a Base Metals Cost Analyst, where she contributed to cost model development and conducted detailed industry analysis. She also gained operational experience at Industrias Peñoles, working in geological auditing, where she carried out technical reviews, evaluations, and analyses of geological and mining processes. Monica holds a Bachelor’s degree in Geological Engineering, graduating with distinction from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), with a specialization in mining geology.
Questions?
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