CAM international market navigates shifting EV supply and demand

Despite the slowdown in the EV segment lately, global demand for CAM from light vehicle segment is expected to grow steadily through 2030.

S&P Global Mobility expects demand to increase at an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to nearly 5 million metric tons (MMt). Global CAM production capacity is forecast to expand at a robust 11.5% CAGR.

In 2024, light vehicle applications—primarily passenger EVs—used 32% of total CAM capacity, and this share is expected to climb to 42.5% by 2030. This reflects a shift from aggressive greenfield expansion toward better use of existing assets, improved efficiency, and higher output—rather than more overbuilding that could undermine profitability.

However, these projections hinge on EV demand in the latter half of the decade, which could be impacted by economic or policy shifts. While Greater China remains dominant, its near-monopoly is showing cracks, opening the door to a more diversified, resilient EV battery supply chain. 

The CAM international market's capacity buildup reflects aggressive bets on exponential EV growth. The market anticipates doubling output from 2025 to 2030, driven by hyperscale gigafactories in Asia and emerging hubs elsewhere. 

Greater China exemplifies this glut. The EV slowdown 
has left several cathode active materials plants idle, and global utilization rate of the total CAM capacity will continue to hover between 35%–45% until 2030.

Against this backdrop of oversupply and price pressure, the cathode active materials market is undergoing notable regional realignment. 

Greater China's dominance persists, commanding 80% of CAM international market capacity in 2025, but its share is 
projected to fall to 65% by 2030 as Western regions expand production. Japan and South Korea, with a 16% share today, will grow modestly but experience a relative decline to 12%. 

Nascent facilities for EV battery components in South Asia and Africa may produce low-cost LFP, helping diversify the EV battery supply chain and reduce risks from US–China trade tensions and EU carbon border taxes.

CAM regional supply chain, 2025:

The evolving elements used in batteries are reshaping the CAM market. LFP is already the most favored chemistry in Greater China, capturing more than 60% market share. 

Now, it is expanding into Europe and North America, which are slowly pivoting from premium NCM/NCA toward LFP for entry/mid-tier models. By 2030, LFP could claim 50% of the CAM 
international market volume, spurring investments in LFP CAM plants and driving shifts across the cathode active materials market globally.

In the US, the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which introduced new criteria for 45X credits based on sourcing from a Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC), is expected to alter the EV battery supply chain. Unlike the IRA, which had zero tolerance for FEOC sourcing, OBBBA's criteria are less stringent, providing some leeway for manufacturers. 

However, sourcing cathodes remains challenging, and US players are expected to look to other countries, such as Indonesia or South Korea. 

Lithium manganese-rich (LMR) batteries could prove to be middle ground between LFP and high-nickel-based cells. Ford and GM have announced plans to commercialize LMR technology by 2030, and GM and LG Energy Solution unveiled prismatic LMR cells for future full‑size trucks and SUVs.

According to S&P Global Mobility’s battery price forecast, the cost battle between the three chemistries for EV batteries most likely to be popular will be a closely fought one. For example, in the US, LMR cells will become cheaper to produce than NCM mid-nickel cells before the end of this decade. LFP will remain the cheapest, but the gap will likely narrow. The choice of elements used in batteries will increasingly shape cost, safety and performance across the CAM international market.