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The net-zero challenge for ICE vehicles

As governments, industries, and consumers work toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, the spotlight has largely remained on electric vehicles (EVs) as the presumed solution. 

Yet, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continue to dominate the vehicle-in-operation (VIO) landscape in selected mature markets such as the United States, Europe and Japan.

Despite aggressive electrification targets and growing EV sales, the transition from ICE to zero-emission vehicles is far from linear. Fleet inertia, influenced by vehicle lifespan, consumer adoption cycles, infrastructure readiness, and shifting consumer sentiment, slows the turnover of legacy powertrains.

A comparison between the latest sales-based powertrain forecast and projections from just a year ago reveals a notable recalibration. While long-term net-zero commitments remain intact, short- to mid-term electrification trajectories have been adjusted in response to economic headwinds, supply chain disruptions, and shifting consumer sentiment. 

This divergence between ideation and implementation highlights the need for pragmatic, transitional strategies. Achieving net-zero will require multiple pathways, not just one. This is where the conversation shifts from electrification alone to engine decarbonization, the technological and operational pathway that allows ICE vehicles to deliver meaningful emissions reductions on the road to net-zero.

What is engine decarbonization and how is it repositioning ICE vehicles in the market?

Engine decarbonization refers to a range of technologies and processes that reduce or eliminate carbon dioxide emissions from ICE vehicles. In practice, engine decarbonization covers combustion optimization, hybrid integration, and the adoption of low-carbon or renewable fuels, supported by advances in materials and lifecycle efficiency. 

Engine decarbonization reframes ICE vehicles from legacy to transitional assets and tools that can complement electric mobility rather than compete with it — and positions them as a credible part of the global strategy for decarbonization of cars on the road to net-zero.

Cleaner ICE technologies, hybridization, and low-carbon fuels offer viable pathways to reduce emissions while maintaining affordability and scalability. Recognizing the continued relevance of ICE within the broader decarbonization framework is essential for crafting realistic, regionally tailored mobility strategies.

The evolution of ICE vehicles: A new path to the decarbonization of cars

The global mobility narrative is often framed as a binary: EVs represent the future, while ICE vehicles are relics of the past. 

In reality, ICE vehicles are far from being obsolete. They are evolving and remain a critical component of the net-zero strategy, especially in markets where full electrification faces economic or infrastructural barriers.

Hybridization: Bridging the gap

Hybrid powertrains balance ICE efficiency with electrified propulsion, cutting fuel use and emissions while avoiding full EV infrastructure needs. The chart below shows 2030 life-cycle carbon intensity for new light vehicles by fuel type, split into upstream emissions (from materials and components) and downstream emissions (Well-to-Wheel during use).1

Transitioning from pure ICE to PHEV increases upstream emissions by around 18% due to battery production but cuts downstream emissions by nearly half through better energy efficiency. Overall, switching to PHEVs can lower total CO₂ intensity by almost 40%.

This pathway is particularly relevant in regions where charging infrastructure is limited or where consumers still face range anxiety. Hybridization also allows OEMs to leverage existing ICE platforms while incrementally improving environmental performance.

Low-carbon fuels: Reimagining the fuel tank

The transition to net-zero does not necessitate the extinction of ICEs.  Low-carbon fuels—particularly e-fuels and waste-based biofuels—offers a viable pathway to decarbonize ICE vehicles while leveraging existing infrastructure. These fuels are compatible with current ICE platforms with minimal modification, making them a scalable solution for reducing lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

E-Fuels: Synthetic Fuels with Scalable Potential

Recent life cycle assessments (LCA) from Concawe indicate that e-fuels—including e-hydrogen, e-methane, e-methanol, e-diesel, and e-kerosene—can achieve cradle-to-grave GHG emissions below 6 gCO₂e/MJ in Northern Europe by 2050. This represents a 92% reduction compared to conventional fossil fuels (94 gCO₂e/MJ), and comfortably meets the EU RED II threshold of 28.2 gCO₂e/MJ (equivalent to a 70% reduction).

While e-fuels produced in Central and Southern Europe are expected to have slightly higher emissions due to regional variations in grid carbon intensity, they still demonstrate significant reductions. For example, projected emissions for these regions remain below 13 gCO₂e/MJ, representing an 86% reduction compared to fossil fuel baselines.

These findings underscore the importance of regional energy mix and infrastructure in determining the carbon intensity of synthetic fuels. Nonetheless, e-fuels remain a promising solution for sectors where electrification is challenging, and for extending the utility of existing ICE fleets.

Biofuels: Circular Carbon from Waste Streams

Biofuels—particularly those derived from waste oils and agricultural residues—offer another compelling route to decarbonize ICE vehicles. Depending on feedstock and production geography, lifecycle GHG emissions from biodiesel can be reduced by 50–80% compared to fossil diesel.

A 2025 study published in (Energy Journal Volume 320 – Elsevier) assessed the carbon footprint of biodiesel produced from waste cooking oil (WCO). The results showed lifecycle emissions of 359.33 kg CO₂ per ton of biodiesel, translating to an 88.4% reduction relative to petroleum diesel. Similarly, a 2022 U.S. study found that biodiesel and renewable diesel (RD) derived from soybean, canola, and carinata oils achieved 40–69% reductions, even after accounting for land-use change impacts.

These findings highlight the potential of waste-based biofuels to contribute meaningfully to transport sector decarbonization, especially in urban contexts where feedstock availability and circular economy principles align.

Bioethanol: Leveraging Biogenic CO₂ for Net-Negative Emissions

A recent case study by IEA Bioenergy explored the use of biogenic CO₂ from sugar-to-ethanol fermentation in Brazil. The study evaluated multiple scenarios, including carbon capture, utilization, and storage (BECCUS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage & BECCU: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Utilization). Under optimalconditions, bioethanol production achieved negative emissions of -8.5 gCO₂e/MJ, even without accounting for CO₂ from biomass combustion. Other configurations yielded emissions ranging from 4.6 to 25.4 gCO₂e/MJ, depending on the extent of carbon utilization and storage.

These results demonstrate the potential of bioethanol to serve as a low-carbon or even carbon-negative fuel, particularly when integrated with CCUS technologies. However, for CCU, economic feasibility remains a challenge due to the high energy demand and cost of producing hydrogen via water electrolysis. Future research may explore alternative hydrogen sources, such as biomass gasification, to improve viability.

While low-carbon fuels show strong promise in reducing GHG emissions, their widespread availability and cost competitiveness remain limited. To fully unlock their potential, these fuels must be paired with innovations in engine design and adaptation. Advanced combustion technologies serve as critical enablers—enhancing fuel efficiency and maximizing the benefits of alternative fuels within ICE platforms. 

AutoTechInsight

Advanced combustion technologies: Engineering efficiency

As OEMs adjust their electrification strategies, advanced combustion technologies have become essential tools for improving fuel economy and reducing emissions across internal combustion platforms. These innovations not only extend the relevance of ICE vehicles but also enhance their compatibility with hybrid systems and low-carbon fuels—making them a vital part of the broader decarbonization landscape.

To illustrate the impact of these technologies, the following matrix presents a structured overview of selected solutions categorized by functional domain, fuel applicability, and fuel consumption benefit. These examples reflect some of the most effective approaches currently deployed across the industry. 
 

These technologies are deployed in varying combinations depending on regional fuel types, regulatory requirements, and vehicle platforms. Their cumulative impact can yield double-digit improvements in fuel efficiency and significant reductions in lifecycle CO₂ emissions—especially when integrated with hybrid architectures or alternative fuels.

The examples shown here represent high-impact solutions that are shaping the next generation of ICE innovation. They reflect a broader engineering effort across the industry to optimize combustion systems for a net-zero future.

Lifecycle emissions optimization: Beyond the tailpipe

Achieving substantial reductions in overall emissions from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles requires consideration of supply chain impacts, not just operational usage. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are actively pursuing strategies to reduce Scope 3 Category 1 emissions by optimizing materials and manufacturing processes. 

The accompanying chart demonstrates that aluminum accounts for approximately 30% of the embedded carbon in a typical ICE vehicle constructed primarily from virgin materials and powered by average electricity sources. The carbon footprint of aluminum production spans a broad range—from 0.37kg to 17.53kg CO₂ per kg—depending on specific methods and energy inputs. Selecting lower-emission aluminum offers significant potential for reducing supply chain-related CO₂ emissions.

This lifecycle approach enables ICE models to aid decarbonization even as tailpipe emissions persist, while also promoting sustainability through circularity, lightweighting, and supplier engagement.

OEM strategy watch: Navigating the electrification reset

Many global OEMs have recalibrated their electrification ambitions either by extending their 100% electrification timelines or lowering their target ratios. This shift reflects the realities of market demand, regulatory uncertainty, supply chain constraints, and evolving consumer sentiment. 

Rather than signaling a retreat from decarbonization, these adjustments have prompted OEMs to diversify their strategies, leveraging hybridization, alternative fuels, advanced ICE technologies, and life-cycle emission management to keep their transition on track.

Electrification target and timeline changes

The table below summarizes recent updates to electrification targets and timelines by major OEMs. These changes are based on public disclosures and industry reporting. 

Decarbonization measures beyond electrification

Despite these adjustments, OEMs are actively pursuing a range of decarbonization measures. The table below maps selected OEMs to the strategies they are adopting, highlighting both common approaches and leaders in aggressive fleet decarbonization.

OEM emission landscape simulation

To illustrate the impact of these strategic shifts, S&P Global Mobility has modelled the projected emission landscape for major OEMs under both “original” and “revised” electrification scenarios. This simulation demonstrates how diversified decarbonization measures—beyond pure electrification—can still drive significant fleet emission reductions.

The road ahead: ICE in 2050

By 2050, the internal combustion engine (ICE) will have evolved far beyond its origins. While electrified powertrains will dominate new vehicle sales, ICE vehicles—transformed through hybridization, advanced combustion, and low-carbon fuels—will remain a significant part of the vehicle-in-operation (VIO) mix in key markets. Modeling suggests that, even in regions with ambitious electrification policies, ICE platforms could still account for 15–20% of the VIO, particularly in commercial, rural, and specialized segments.2

 
The emissions profile of these vehicles will be fundamentally different from today. Hybridization, scalable e-fuels, and waste-based biofuels could deliver lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions of 70–90%, bringing the concept of a “near-net-zero ICE4” within reach.3, 4

Achieving this vision will require coordinated action across the value chain—OEMs, suppliers, policymakers, and technology partners must work together to accelerate innovation, deployment, and circularity. 
 
The analyses presented here—scenario pathways, technology benchmarks, and strategic implications—are intended to support decision-makers as they navigate the transition to net-zero mobility, where execution quality becomes a source of leadership. 
 
As the decarbonization journey enters its next phase, the challenge is not simply to phase out the engine, but to reinvent it. The future of mobility will be shaped by those who combine pragmatic strategy with technological innovation, leveraging credible evidence to guide decisions in an increasingly complex landscape. 
 
What will it take to achieve net-zero ICE by 2050? The answer lies not in abandoning the engine, but in reimagining it—together.

Powering the next phase of engine decarbonization

Reinventing the internal combustion engine for a net-zero future demands data-driven precision. Understanding real-world vehicle emissions is essential to managing carbon targets, identifying risks, and guiding investment in cleaner powertrains.

That’s where S&P Global Mobility's comprehensive datasets come in. Explore S&P Global Mobility’s Automotive Carbon Accounting Downstream (Scope 3, Category 11) solution and download a sample dataset today — and complement it with our Carbon Accounting Upstream solution (Scope 3, Category 1) to understand both use-phase and material-embedded emissions across the entire vehicle lifecycle.

Explore the full solutions or get in touch with our data experts:

Reference notes

  1. System boundary: Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions include upstream (materials and manufacturing) and downstream (use-phase/Well-to-Wheel) impacts. End-of-life emissions are excluded. Data reflect new light vehicle production and operation in 2030, based on S&P Global Mobility Carbon Accounting Downstream and Upstream Forecast.

  2. China market estimate. Source: S&P Global Mobility MEF Forecast, 2025. Scenario assumes current policy trajectory, gradual ICE scrappage, and continued availability of low-carbon fuels. VIO share reflects S&P Global Mobility’s baseline scenario for China, with electrification targets and fuel infrastructure development as of Q2 2025.

  3. Lifecycle GHG reduction estimates are based on published LCAs: Concawe (2023) for e-fuels in Northern Europe, Energy Journal Volume 320 – Elsevier (2025) for waste cooking oil biodiesel, and IEA Bioenergy (2024) for bioethanol with CCUS. Boundary conditions include near-zero-carbon energy inputs, minimal ILUC, and region-specific grid factors.

  4. An internal combustion engine vehicle that, through the use of low-carbon fuels, advanced ICE and hybrid efficiency, and supply-chain decarbonization, can achieve up to 70–90% cradle-to-grave lifecycle GHG emission reduction compared to conventional ICE baselines

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.