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Production revisions continue to reflect the dynamic environment
impacting the auto industry. The March 2022 forecast update
resulted in a rather significant production realignment due largely
to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Since then, our team at S&P
Global Mobility has done some "fine tuning" with this month's
forecast update, which includes some more meaningful adjustments
than others as COVID lockdowns in China impact the domestic market
as well as some surrounding markets, and ongoing semiconductor
supply conditions remain challenging for most automakers
globally.
As COVID lockdowns in China are lifting and the government looks
to stimulate auto demand, the profile for that market shifts to one
of nascent recovery while other surrounding markets still cope with
lingering supply chain dislocations due to the lockdowns in the
near-term.
On the semiconductor front, mixed signals are apparent with some
automakers reporting an improved supply of chips while other
players still struggle with consistent supply of critical
components. We remain watchful for potential demand destruction
caused by slower economic growth forecasts for 2024 and beyond. The
S&P Global Mobility June 2022 forecast update reflects a
near-term increase for Greater China due to COVID lockdowns
expiring and demand stimulus taking effect. Conversely, lingering
supply chain impacts from the lockdowns in China result in downward
revisions for Japan/Korea and South Asia and supply chain pressures
continue to impact the near-term outlook for Europe and North
America.
Posted 27 June 2022 by Mark Fulthorpe, Executive Director, Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast, S&P Global Mobility
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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