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Snapshot U.S. Energy Transition: Opportunities, risks and costs


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Snapshot U.S. Energy Transition: Opportunities, risks and costs

According to our latest analysis on the S&P Capital IQ Pro platform, despite the strong renewable energy market growth, the current trajectory in the U.S. falls well short of the goals proposed in the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP).

Implementing these goals into our power forecast, we expect 85 GW per year of wind and solar to be built annually through 2035 and a cumulative total of 630 GW of wind and 450 GW of solar to be needed by 2035. This translates to a total investment of $1.2 trillion or about $94 billion annually.

Meanwhile, we estimate that $68 billion in coal plant investment and new gas plant construction could be at risk as stranded assets in our push for green energy.

Yet, even with an aggressive renewable build-out, the sector may fall short of achieving decarbonization, with over 480 GW of fossil fuel generation still expected to be in operation in 2035.

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