Challenges for European banks; Japan's IPO slowdown; carmakers' supply woes

In this edition of Insight Weekly, we examine the challenges confronting banks in Europe. As the war in Ukraine continues, European lenders operating in Russia must either make a hurried and potentially costly exit or stay put and deal with international sanctions and reputational risks. In France, the reelection of President Emmanuel Macron offers a brief respite to lenders, which are facing up to a deteriorating outlook as the war impacts revenues and asset quality. Elsewhere, major Nordic banks aim to press ahead with efforts to reduce exposure to the oil and gas sector even as Norway ramps up fossil fuel production.

Japan's IPO market may see a further slowdown in the second quarter and beyond after market volatility and inflation forced seven companies to shelve proposed listings in February and March, analysts said. Seven of the 10 largest debuts in the first quarter were trading below their IPO prices as of mid-April, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is adding stress to the global auto supply chain, threatening to send surging prices for new cars even higher. Sanctions against Russia are impacting energy prices, agricultural goods and raw materials, and the conflict is prompting logistical challenges and production stops related to operations on the western Ukrainian border, according to S&P Global Mobility. Supply shortages will hit auto production for years to come, offering little relief to high prices.

Challenges for European Banks In Focus

European banks face tough choice as they weigh Russia pullback

Société Générale leads five banks rapidly exiting Russia, with the French lender saying it will take a loss of about €3.1 billion on the planned sale of its local unit.

French banks face up to mounting challenges as election shock is avoided

Relief at the reelection of Emmanuel Macron will be short-lived as France's largest lenders face up to the problems posed by the impact of the war in Ukraine on revenues and asset quality.

Nordic banks to further cut oil, gas exposure despite Europe energy crisis

Nordic banks are seeing better asset quality after efforts to reduce oil and gas exposure in the past two years. A growing focus on environmental, social and governance concerns and transition risk will likely prompt a further reduction.

Deep dives

In-depth features looking at the impact of major news developments in key industries.

Credit and markets

Japan IPOs stumble after promising start as market volatility clouds outlook

The number of new listings in Japan in 2022 will likely be lower than in 2021, when 125 companies listed in the country, the most in 15 years, according to Katsumi Udagawa, a manager at the research and strategy department of Ichiyoshi Securities Co.

Fed rate push offers little immediate relief to overheated housing market

The Fed's plans to aggressively hike rates this year have already driven benchmark mortgage rates to the highest point since 2010, but severe supply constraints could delay impacts of a monetary policy shift.

Financials

Financials Research: US community banks' earnings growth challenged despite margin rebound

Community bank margins will jump as interest rates increase, but earnings are unlikely to grow in 2022 and 2023 as credit costs normalize and fee income declines, according to the newly released U.S. Community Bank Market Report.

Australian banks' return to bond market to raise costs, pressure margins

Australian banks, which have enjoyed years of cheap funding, may see increased pressure on their margins as they return to bond markets to raise capital.

Swiss, UK banks among least efficient in Europe in Q4'21

Swiss lender Credit Suisse Group had the highest cost-to-income ratio among Europe's biggest banks, Market Intelligence data shows, while three of the five U.K. banks in the sample were in the top 10.

Insurance

Commercial auto insurers see highest premiums, lowest combined ratio since 2017

Progressive remained the dominant player in commercial auto with the highest premiums and growth rate, going along with the second-lowest combined ratio among the top 20 companies in the sector.

Financials Research: Large deals elevate private equity-linked reinsurers in US life, annuity market

A Market Intelligence analysis revealed that private equity-linked reinsurers accounted for a majority of the cedant reserve credits taken associated with life and annuity reinsurance relationships that took effect in 2021.

Private equity

Global venture capital investment plunges in March

Although investment size was down, the total number of deals announced in March increased by 1.2% from the 1,981 announced transactions in March 2021.

Real estate

Pension funds boost investments in multifamily, industrial, office REITs

Institutional investors are becoming more interested in nontraditional property sectors, such as build-to-rent single-family homes, data centers, student housing, medical offices and biotechnology lab space.

Supply chain

Russia-Ukraine supply woes threaten to drive surging auto inflation higher

The conflict is adding stress to the long-suffering semiconductor supply chain and impacting the production of other key parts.

Technology, media and telecommunications

Analysts question billionaire Elon Musk's vision for Twitter

The microblogging company already faced questions about its content moderation practices and slowing user growth. Even with Musk at the helm and a streamlined executive decision-making process, analysts said many key challenges would remain.

Kagan Research: Gauging cryptocurrency, NFT appetite across OTT, music, social audiences

Big media firms, tech giants, game publishers and financial service providers are staking claims in the nascent digital asset sector.

Metals and mining

China's plan to cut output might bail out steelmakers facing COVID-19 impact

China pledged to cut crude steel output in 2022, the country's state planner said April 19. The move is likely a lifeline for steelmakers suffering losses due to surging raw material prices and the COVID-19 demand shock.

Energy and utilities

Activist investors turning up heat on oil majors in proxy voting season

Major oil and gas companies from Europe and the U.S. are set for landmark shareholder votes on emissions-reduction strategies during the upcoming proxy season. This follows a string of high-profile successes by activists in 2021.

Utility stocks shrug off inflation, interest rates, but rougher road could await

High inflation and rising interest rates are not dragging utility stocks, but ballooning customer bills and rising renewable project costs could eventually impact balance sheets in the sector.

The Week in M&A

Deal Profile: Elon Musk's $44B Twitter deal ranks among tech's largest transactions

Natus Medical's $1.2B go-private deal could renew PE interest in medtech

Deal Profile: First Bancshares to acquire Beach Bancorp in $116.7M deal

Oil, gas deal tracker: M&A activity falls YOY in March

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