Customer Logins

Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.

Customer Logins

My Logins

All Customer Logins
S&P Global Market Intelligence

  • S&P Global
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices
  • S&P Global Engineering Solutions
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • S&P Global Mobility
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • S&P Global Ratings
  • S&P Global Sustainable1
Close
Discover more about S&P Global’s offerings
Investor Relations
  • Investor Relations Overview
  • Investor Presentations
  • Investor Fact Book
  • News Releases
  • Quarterly Earnings
  • SEC Filings & Reports
  • Executive Committee
  • Corporate Governance
  • Merger Information
  • Stock & Dividends
  • Shareholder Services
  • Contact Investor Relations
Languages
  • English
  • 中文
  • 日本語
  • 한국어
  • Português
  • Español
  • ไทย
About
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Media Center
  • Glossary
Product Login
S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • Who We Serve
  • Solutions
  • News & Insights
  • Events
  • Product Login
  • Request Follow Up
  •  
    • Academia
    • Commercial Banking
    • Corporations
     
    • Government & Regulatory Agencies
    • Insurance
    • Investment & Global Banking
     
    • Investment Management
    • Private Equity
    • Professional Services
  • WORKFLOW SOLUTIONS
    • Capital Formation
    • Credit and Risk Solutions
    • Data & Distribution
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Sustainability
    • Financial Technology Solutions
     
    • Issuer & IR Solutions
    • Leveraged Loans
    • Post Trade Processing
    • Private Markets
    • Risk, Compliance, & Reporting
    • Supply Chain
    PRODUCTS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Global Marketplace
    • China Credit Analytics
    • Climate Credit Analytics
    • Credit Analytics
    • RatingsDirect ®
    • RatingsXpress ®
    • 451 Research
    See More S&P Global Solutions
     
    • Capital Access
    • Corporate Actions
    • KY3P ®
    • EDM
    • PMI™
    • BD Corporate
    • Bond Pricing
  • CONTENT
    • Latest Headlines
    • Blog
    • Research
    • Videos
    • Podcasts
    • Infographics
    • Newsletters
    • Client Case Studies
    SECTOR-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS
    • Differentiated Data
    • Banking & Insurance
    • Energy
    • Maritime, Trade, & Supply Chain
    • Metals & Mining
    • Technology, Media, & Telecoms
    • Investment Research
    • Sector Coverage
    • Expert Directory
    More ways we can help
    NEWS & RESEARCH TOPICS
    • 2023 Big Picture Outlook
    • Credit & Risk
    • Cryptocurrency
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Financial Services
    • Maritime & Trade
    • M&A
    • Sustainability & Climate
    • Technology
    See More
    • All Events
    • Webinars
    • Webinar Replays
    Featured Events
    WebinarM&A In Focus: Tech Acquisitions and the ‘New Normal’ in 2023
    • 02/08/2023
    • Live, Online
    • 11:00 am - 12:00 pm EST
    Webinar ReplaysAssessing the impact of the U.S. Government Accountability Office recommendations’ on Export Control Compliance at universities
    • 01/18/2023
    • On-Demand
    • 60 minutes
    ConferenceTPMTech
    • 02/23/2023
    • Hilton Long Beach Convention Center
  • PLATFORMS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Capital IQ
    • S&P Global China Credit Analytics
    OTHER PRODUCTS
    • Credit Analytics
    • Panjiva
    • Money Market Directories
     
    • Research Online
    • 451 Research
    See All Product Logins

Russia-Ukraine war could amplify supply chain woes

10 June 2022 Alyssa Grzelak Dijedon Imeri Jack Kennedy Jessica Leyland John Raines Ken Wattret Kevjn Lim Laurence Allan Petya Barzilska

Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a high-intensity but indecisive war of attrition in Donbas. Ukrainian forces are likely to fall back to prepared defensive positions near Bakhmut, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, all in the Donetsk region. Ukrainians' ability to defend these key positions in Donetsk will depend on the ability to deploy new weapons transferred by the US, UK, Poland, and other allies. Russia is within reach of capturing the entire Luhansk region of Ukraine in coming weeks.

Map of invasion of Ukraine as of June 8

The European Council - comprising the heads of states and governments of the 27 European Union member states - has adopted a sixth package of sanctions against Russia. This latest round of sanctions will restrict about 90% of Russian oil imports into the EU. Increasing intra-EU frictions over the bloc's response to the war in Ukraine are likely to continue to cause delays in advancing further sanctions in the one-year outlook.

Sanctions continue to weigh on Russia's financial sector. Russian lender Sberbank's subsidiary in Kazakhstan is the subject of talks for its sale to Kazakh financial holding company Baiterek, Reuters has reported, citing undisclosed sources. Baiterek is state-owned, with the Kazakhstan Development Bank falling under its ownership.

Pre-existing vulnerabilities in emerging European banking sectors could be amplified by a further escalation or sanctioning of the Russia-Ukraine war. Shocks in growth or inflation, or a revival in COVID-19 infections could prompt tighter macroprudential policy in the near term and also impact these sectors. Increased lending to the micro, small, and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) segment in mainland China and edged up impairment ratios at banks in Latin America could also be on the horizon.

The ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the prices of key commodities, such as energy and agricultural products, are contributing to exceptionally elevated inflation rates in the eurozone in recent months. Those effects are likely to continue in the near term.

The industrial growth outlook in Europe faces challenges from continued supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the war's impact on transportation, prices, and availability of inputs as well as weakening demand and higher risk aversion.

The EU has published its REPowerEU plan, which sets out measures aimed at discontinuing imports of fossil fuel from Russia to the EU in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The policy would accelerate its reduction in energy consumption and focus on alternative forms of energy, including hydrogen and liquefied natural gas.

Read through to China

A key cause in the drop seen in global manufacturing output in May was a sharp downturn in factory production within mainland China for a third successive month, exacerbated in Europe by the Ukraine war. China's reported output drop in May was the third-quickest recorded since the height of the global financial crisis, reflecting ongoing efforts by the Chinese authorities to contain the spread of COVID-19.

Mainland China's pandemic situation is stabilizing and lockdown restrictions are easing across the geography. The Chinese economy is expected to recover in June. The "dynamic zero-COVID" policy, slowing income growth, and weakening global economy will continue to pose risks for mainland China's economic recovery.

What we're watching for:

  • Cyberattacks targeting government, banks, media websites in Russia and Belarus

  • Free-floating mines pose risk to Black Sea approaches to Romanian, Bulgarian ports

Posted 10 June 2022 by Alyssa Grzelak, Director, Banking Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Dijedon Imeri, Senior Analyst, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist and

Jessica Leyland, Senior Analyst – Middle East & North Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Ken Wattret, Vice-President, Analysis and Insights, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kevjn Lim, Principal Research Analyst, Middle East and North Africa, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Laurence Allan, Director , Economics and Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Petya Barzilska, Sr. Research Analyst II, Europe & CIS Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence


This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

Previous Economics & Country Risk Post All Economics & Country Risk Next Economics & Country Risk Post

Related Posts

  • Where to find the fastest adoption rates for blockchain technology
  • Rising cost of living is likely to fuel protests in Europe in 2023
  • Weekly Pricing Pulse: Falling energy prices mark the start of a New Lunar Year for commodity markets
  • US Weekly Economic Commentary: Don’t be fooled by Q4 GDP
  • Bank of Canada pauses monetary policy
  • Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise on chemical market strength
  • The global economic outlook brightens as inflation eases
  • US Weekly Economic Commentary: Shrinking goods sector

Explore

RELATED INDUSTRIES & TOPICS
  • Economics & Country Risk
  • Country risk
  • Economic Risk
  • Supply Chain Risk

Recommended for you

  • Global Economy
  • Country Risk
  • Pricing & Purchasing

A World Rebalancing

Five themes driving the economics and risk outlook in 2023
Request full report

From neighborhood to nation we have you covered

Regional Explorer: Economics, risk, and data analytics
Learn more
Get a 360 degree perspective

Subscribe to our blog newsletter

Sign up
Subscribe to RSS Feed

Follow Us

Feb 03
EconomicsRisk@EconomicsRisk

And here's another citation for our economists on US employment trends, this one in @USATODAY: https://t.co/NO3pIP3xRz

Feb 03
Feb 03
EconomicsRisk@EconomicsRisk

Wonderful to see @ChrisVarvares quoted in the @washingtonpost on the US #employment report! https://t.co/WFAjGKrSPx https://t.co/crhSqBuVtJ

Feb 03
Feb 03
EconomicsRisk@EconomicsRisk

Mark your calendars! https://t.co/2wiIxaWPHS

Feb 03
Feb 03
EconomicsRisk@EconomicsRisk

Where does one find the fastest adoption rates for #blockchain technology? The answer may surprise you: https://t.co/ZAifbJHgHm

Feb 03
{"items" : [ {"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2frussiaukraine-war-could-amplify-supply-chain-woes.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2frussiaukraine-war-could-amplify-supply-chain-woes.html&text=Russia-Ukraine+war+could+amplify+supply+chain+woes+%7c+S%26P+Global+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2frussiaukraine-war-could-amplify-supply-chain-woes.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=Russia-Ukraine war could amplify supply chain woes | S&P Global &body=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2frussiaukraine-war-could-amplify-supply-chain-woes.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=Russia-Ukraine+war+could+amplify+supply+chain+woes+%7c+S%26P+Global+ http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2frussiaukraine-war-could-amplify-supply-chain-woes.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"} ]}
Filter Sort
  • About Us
  • Quality Program
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Press Releases
  • Careers
  • Corporate Responsibility
  • Our History
  • Investor Relations
  • Leadership
  • © 2023 S&P Global
  • Terms of Use
  • Cookie Notice
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclosures
  • Do Not Sell My Personal Information