Uneasy West Coast ports watch as first signs of trade dispute with China emerge

Ports and marine terminals along the US West Coast are bracing for what could be a massive drop in imports moving across their docks in the coming weeks as the tangible impacts of blank sailings and half-empty container ships arriving from China become apparent.

The effects of the US trade war with Beijing will be most visible in Southern California, where stakeholders at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — the US’ busiest gateway — expect a huge cut in imports in May, with a 35% decline in Los Angeles and 38% in Long Beach compared with their normal monthly volumes.

“Leading indicators forecast a significant dip in container ship arrivals in the next one to two weeks,” Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, said.

The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked, or canceled, sailings between May 1 and June 30, according to both ports. That number, which could rise, means that about 65,000 to 71,000 TEUs of imports won’t be landing in Southern California each week for the next few weeks.

A spokesperson for the Port of Los Angeles said 17 blank sailings are scheduled for May and 12 for June. Long Beach is scheduled to have 13 blanked sailings in May and 17 in June, according to Noel Hacegaba, the port’s chief operating officer.

The impact of the blanked sailings will vary from terminal to terminal depending on the lines that call there and the origin of the imports, said Alan McCorkle, president and CEO of Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles.

“We’re all experiencing it to some degree,” he said. “We expect a couple of blanks in May.”

When cargo volumes drop precipitously, terminal operators generally reduce their gate hours, McCorkle said. “We’ll close two or three gates a week to right-size our operation.”

While dockworkers won’t face lower pay or job cuts given their contract protections, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) nonetheless savaged the Trump administration this week for implementing the tariffs and for the trade dispute they ignited with China.

“Tariffs are taxes. These and other reckless, shortsighted policies have begun to devastate American workers, harm critical sectors of the economy, and line the pockets of the ultra-wealthy at the expense of hardworking families,” the union said in a statement.

“Hundreds of thousands of jobs are dependent on or connected to global trade,” the ILWU added. “Constricted trade between the world’s two largest economies could lead to devastating job losses for workers employed in the global supply chain.”

Imports to drop in Oakland and NWSA

Further up the West Coast, the Port of Oakland likewise anticipates a drop in vessel calls and import volumes over the next two months.

“In recent weeks, vessel service reductions have increased,” a port spokesperson said. “Between April and June, 39 blank sailings have been announced across multiple shipping alliances calling Oakland. These reductions tighten available vessel capacity for both imports and exports.”

A spokesperson for the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma said carriers are scheduled to blank 17 sailings to the port complex in May and June, five more than in the same period last year.

And although import volumes through the NWSA have soared 22.4% year over year through March, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, that appears to be changing.

“We are seeing some vessels coming in with less cargo than anticipated, and we are hearing from exporters and importers directly on canceled orders, especially with China,” the spokesperson said. “These impacts are real and will likely be reflected in our data in the coming months.”

China accounts for 51% of NWSA imports and 40% of the complex’s total trade, the spokesperson noted.

Vancouver unaffected

The Port of Vancouver does not anticipate a drop in import volumes due to the US tariffs on imports from China, said Rosanna Lau, manager of trade development at the Vancouver-Fraser Port Authority.

“Our forecasts for the coming weeks indicate that container volumes at the Port of Vancouver will remain consistent with seasonal norms,” Lau said. “It is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of container traffic moving through the port is Canadian trade and not directly affected by US tariffs.”

Originally published in the Journal of Commerce, May 1, 2025

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.