Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity Prices Flat as Market Sentiment Moderates

Some negative market sentiment was evident last week, as a major ratings firm downgraded US debt at the end of the preceding week. The resultant decline in the value of US equities, treasuries, and the dollar mirrored negative market sentiment. The S&P 500 stock price index ended 2.6% down on the week – its worst week since early-April.

The second big announcement came at the end of the week as US President Trump recommended a 50% tariff be placed on European imports. This recommendation has since been pushed back to July 9. S&P Global Market intelligence believes this to be, primarily, a mechanism to accelerate trade talks with the EU, but still indicates the possibility of tariff rates settling higher than the current 10%.

Ultimately, market sentiments remain mixed as easing trade tensions on one side of the globe are quickly replaced by escalations on another. The release of April inflation figures for the United States and European economies will give an indication of how trade tensions are impacting consumer prices.

The Material Price Index (MPI) by S&P Global Market Intelligence was all but flat last week, falling less than 0.1%. The marginal decline was mixed with four of the ten subcomponents falling. The MPI is approximately 13.4% lower than it was the same week a year ago, indicating a general easing in commodity prices over the past 12 months.

Nonferrous metals were the major downward mover last week with the sub-index declining 0.9%, halting a run of five consecutive weekly increases. Aluminum prices fell by 1.4%, to a weekly average of $2450/metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME). This decline is markets re-focusing on supply/demand fundamentals after the previous week’s exuberance following the US and mainland China agreeing a mutual 90-day tariff reduction. The copper pricing decline was less pronounced — after a weaker gain the week before — falling only 0.3% to a weekly average of $9538/metric ton.

Lumber prices showed another strong week, increasing 4.6% last week after 5.3% the week before. This comes as official statistics showed new home sales in the US increased by 73,000 (10.9%) in April, the highest reading since February 2022. This, combined with expected increases to tariffs on Canadian lumber entering the US in the latter half of 2025, drove prices higher.

—By Gregory Muller

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.