Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity Prices Fall Again on Energy Declines

Market sentiment seemed to brighten last week, with the S&P 500 rising over all five days — even with the announcement of US real GDP having declined 0.3% in annualized terms in the first quarter of 2025.

Final sales to private domestic purchasers — another measure of an economy’s health — rose 3% (QoQ, annualized rate) over the first quarter, though much of this may be due to advanced purchases ahead of tariff implementation.

Markets were buoyed by talk of discussion between Beijing and Washington reevaluating the current tariff landscape. The ultimate trajectory of trade talks remains unclear; a wide range of outcomes are possible even if one assumes tariff levels will decrease.

The Material Price Index (MPI) by S&P Global Market Intelligence declined by 1.7% last week, following a slighter decline the week before. Five of the ten subcomponents fell. The MPI is approximately 12% lower than it was the same week a year ago, indicating a general easing in commodity prices over the past 12 months.

Energy prices fell precipitously, with the subindex sliding 6.7%. Oil prices fell by nearly 7% last week, with Brent crude falling to $63/barrel. These price declines represent concerns in the oil market that escalating trade tensions will hamper global oil demand.

This combined with speculation — which we now know to have been accurate —that the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend would lead to further production increases. Natural gas prices slipped 12%, mainly in Europe and Asia. This is due to a combination of warmer Asian temperatures, high inflows to Europe, and record re-exporting from mainland China.

The chemicals subindex declined 1.4% last week, following oil price declines. The chemicals subindex sits at its lowest point since July 2023.

— By Greg Muller

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.