Valentine's Day goods dodge US tariffs — for now

US imports of roses are dominated by shipments from Colombia, with 55.9% of the 1.69 billion stems imported to the US having been sourced there in 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

US imports of chocolates are led by shipments from Mexico and Canada, which represented 68.9% of the US imports worth US$3.33 billion in 2024. Shipments increased by 40.8% year over year in December, partly reflecting higher cocoa prices. The Trump administration’s plans for 25% duties on products from Mexico and Canada were put on hold for 30 days but could return in time for peak consumption in the 2025 winter holiday season.

Imports of Valentine’s themed toys, decorations and tableware are led by shipments from Mainland China, which accounted for 56.0% of 8,668 20-foot equivalent units of containerized freight in 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Total shipments typically peak in November and climbed by 11.2% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2024 and by 24.3% in January 2025 to reach a record high.

Shipments from China already fell by 35.6% year over year, suggesting some of the growth in the fourth quarter was front-loading of inventories in preparation for the risk of potential tariffs.

Imports of some decorations and tableware were already covered by Section 301 duties at a 7.5% rate applied by the previous Trump administration. As of Feb. 4, 2025, all the imports are covered by duties of an additional 10%.

The future of those tariffs, and the cost of Valentine’s Day 2026, will depend on whether an agreement can be reached between the US and China.

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