Research — Nov 11, 2024
US Elections 2024: State-level races to shape energy, utility landscape
With less than a week until the 2024 General Election, voters nationwide will decide on key positions and issues affecting future state-level energy and utility policies.
Elections on Nov. 5 will feature various state-level offices and ballot initiatives. In 11 states, the governor's seat is up for election. Additionally, 44 states will hold legislative elections for roughly 5,800 legislative seats, while Washington, DC, will hold elections for several seats on its District Council, and New Hampshire will hold elections for the Executive Council.
Several key down-ballot races will also occur in various states, including 14 utility commissioners, nine lieutenant governors, 10 attorneys general and 10 treasurers. The 2024 election cycle also includes 76 state Supreme Court elections. These races include partisan, nonpartisan and retention elections.
Download the 2024 State-level General Elections deep dive interactive PDF and its excel companion.
State-level elections can shift a state's energy policies and regulations in various ways. Governors can significantly shape a state's energy agenda and promote the ongoing energy transition through policy, regulatory and budgetary initiatives. For their part, state legislatures pass energy-related legislation, participate in the budget process, and, in some cases, participate in selecting state utility commissioners and/or state consumer advocacy personnel.
Down-ballot elections may impact a state's regulatory environment, and it is best to be aware of all potential outcomes. State attorneys general can bring challenges on behalf of the state to the federal court system and participate in utility proceedings before the state utility commissions. In recent years, state treasurers have focused on environmental, social and governance issues within the financial investment community.
Additionally, energy-related activity within state courts has been relatively active in the last several years as severe weather disruptions became more prevalent across the US, and various states' legislative redistricting efforts have been challenged in courts.
For a more detailed analysis and preview, refer to Regulatory Research Associates' topical special report "General Elections: A deep dive into the 2024 state-level elections" and the accompanying supplemental data file.
Governors' races
With gubernatorial elections in 11 states, and Montana, Utah and Vermont the only states where the incumbent is running for reelection, eight states will see a new governor elected this year.
Term limits prevent incumbent governors in Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia from seeking reelection. Incumbent governors in New Hampshire and Washington were not term-limited but chose not to run. Term limits for the North Dakota governorship took effect proactively in 2022, meaning the incumbent could have sought a third four-year term, but the governor ultimately opted against seeking reelection.
The election of a new governor can change the energy landscape in a jurisdiction as the chief executives' priorities and objectives play an instrumental role in driving legislative policy agendas. The reelection of an incumbent governor or election of a candidate of the same party as the departing governor typically implies general stability and a maintaining of the status quo regarding state energy policy.
Additionally, new governors may alter the makeup of state public utility commissions. Though independent regulatory bodies, commissions can be influenced by gubernatorial actions on investigations, priorities and direction.
State Legislatures
Over 5,800 legislative seats will be on the November ballot in 45 jurisdictions, including Wasington, DC. Most states will hold elections for their upper chambers, except Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia. Regarding the lower chamber, 43 states, including Michigan and Minnesota, will conduct elections.
Legislative bodies in Washington, DC, and Nebraska are unicameral; therefore, elections there will only be held for the upper chamber of their legislative branch. Additionally, all five New Hampshire Executive Council seats — a state executive board that approves state budget expenditures and gubernatorial appointments — will be on the ballot in 2024.
State legislators significantly influence energy policies, drafting and passing legislation either independently or when swayed by interest groups or the governor. Legislative activity impacting utility regulatory issues has been robust over the years and continues to intensify, with over 481 energy-related bills and resolutions passed and enacted during the 2023 legislative session, as tracked by RRA.
In some cases, state legislatures also play a role in shaping state utility commissions. One in four legislators elected in November will be responsible for either electing utility commissioners or confirming gubernatorial appointments to the regulatory body.
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Utility commissions
Nine states will hold utility commission elections for 14 seats during the upcoming elections. All nine utility commissions are controlled by a Republican majority, with seven of the commissions consisting entirely of Republican members.
In six states holding elections, commissioners serve for six years, while commissioners serve four-year terms in the remaining three states.
Commissioners are subject to term limits in Arizona, Montana and Oklahoma. Due to these term limits, Republicans Tony O'Donnell of the Montana Public Service Commission and Bob Anthony of the Oklahoma Corporation Commission are ineligible for reelection.
State utility regulatory commissions are quasi-judicial agencies overseeing rates charged by utilities, which are essentially government-sanctioned monopolies. In addition to setting rates, commissions oversee countless other proceedings, including mergers, grid modernization programs, integrated resource planning and storm-cost recovery.
Additional key down-ballot races and ballot measures
Several other offices with some ties to energy issues will be on the ballot this year and have even recently inserted themselves into the matters. Positions such as lieutenant governor, attorney general, treasurer and state supreme court justices all can shift the direction of a state's energy policies and regulations.
Lieutenant Governor races
For the 2024 election cycle:
– Nine states will hold elections for lieutenant governor, where two states (Vermont and Washington) will feature a Democratic incumbent, and Republican incumbents will be on the ballot in two states (Montana and Utah).
– Four states have the candidate run on a joint ticket with the governor, while in the remaining five states, the candidate is elected separately.
– Delaware incumbent Bethany Hall-Long (D) is the only term-limited lieutenant governor. Two other states, Montana and North Carolina, impose term limits on the position; however, the incumbents have only served one term.
– Vermont is the only state where the term length is two years. In the remaining eight states, the lieutenant governor serves for four years.
– The incumbents in Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota chose to pursue their parties' nomination for governor in their respective states; however, only Missouri Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) and North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) were successful.
– Heading into the election, Republicans control the office in 25 states, while Democrats control 20.
Attorney general races
For the 2024 election cycle:
– In 10 states, the attorney general will be on the ballots, where Indiana, Missouri and Montana will feature a Republican incumbent, and Vermont will have a Democratic incumbent on the ballot. The incumbent attorney general in Oregon, Pennsylvania and Utah decided not to seek an additional term. While not term-limited, incumbents in North Carolina, Washington and West Virginia opted to pursue their party's nomination for governor rather than seek reelection. Only Washington's and West Virginia's attorneys general were successful.
– The attorney general is subject to term limits in Montana and Pennsylvania. Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R) has only served one full term in office. Pennsylvania Attorney General Michelle Henry (D) stated she would not run for election after being appointed to the position, guaranteeing a new attorney general.
– Vermont is the only state where the term length is two years. In the remaining nine states, the attorneys general serve for four years.
– In New Hampshire, the attorney general is appointed by the governor, a position that is on the ballot in November. The term of current Attorney General John Formella (R) is set to expire in March 2025.
– Maine Attorney General Aaron Frey (D) is serving a term that expires in December 2024. The Maine Legislature selects the attorney in a ballot vote at the beginning of each legislative session. All 35 state Senate and 151 state House of Representative seats will be on the ballot in Maine.
– Heading into the election, Republicans control the office in 27 states, while Democrats control 23 positions, and one state has a nonpartisan attorney general.
Treasurer races
For the 2024 election cycle:
– Nine states will hold regular elections for treasurers, while Arkansas will have a special election for the remainder of an unexpired term. Republican incumbents in four states (Missouri, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Utah) are seeking reelection, while Democrat incumbents in Vermont and Washington are seeking additional terms. The incumbent treasurer in North Carolina and West Virginia declined to seek reelection in favor of running for a different government position.
– The treasurer is subject to term limits in Arkansas, Missouri, Oregon and Pennsylvania; however, Missouri Treasurer Vivek Malek (R) and Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) are not impacted by the term limits in the current election cycle, while Oregon Treasurer Tobias Read (D) was barred from seeking reelection.
– Vermont is the only state where the term length is two years. In the remaining eight states, the treasurer serves for four years. In Arkansas, the election is to serve the remaining two years of an unexpired term.
– In Maine, New Hampshire and Tennessee, the state legislature elects the treasurer, and the incumbents are serving terms that expire in 2025. In Montana, the treasurer is appointed and serves at the pleasure of the governor, a position on the ballot this year.
– Heading into the election, Republicans control the office in 25 states, while Democrats control 13 positions. In 13 states, the current treasurer is either a nonpartisan official or has not disclosed their political affiliation.
Supreme court
For the 2024 election cycle:
– In 33 states, elections will be held for 76 state supreme court positions. Voters in 12 states will elect justices for the state supreme court through nonpartisan elections, presenting candidates on the ballot without their political affiliations. In these 12 states, 34 seats will be up for election.
– Voters in six states will elect 15 justices in partisan elections, where the ballot includes their political affiliations. In the remaining 15 states, retention elections will be held for a total of 27 seats, where the incumbent is asking voters to be retained for an additional term.
– The terms up for election also vary by state: in 13 states, the justices serve for six years; in 11 states, a term is for eight years; in seven states, the justices serve for 10 years; and in the remaining two states, the terms extend to 12 years.
– In five states, 10 candidates have already been declared winners after running in nonpartisan and retention elections held earlier in the year.
Ballot measures
Voters in several states will decide on energy-related ballot measures that could impact the industry directly or indirectly, potentially with long-term implications. Ballot measures and initiatives allow for direct electorate participation in the lawmaking process, enabling citizens to vote on proposed statutes, constitutional amendments or referendums.
The ballot initiative process is a bipartisan endeavor, and in almost all 50 states, legislatures can place legislatively referred constitutional amendments on the ballot, and nearly half of the states allow for legislatively referred state statutes.
In six states, voters will decide on initiatives directly affecting the energy industry. In 18 jurisdictions, citizens will vote on ballot measures related to governance and electoral issues that could indirectly affect the energy industry. Voters in Honolulu, Hawaii, and Portland, Oregon, will also be able to cast ballots on local initiatives related to energy matters.
In 2024, energy-related ballot initiatives include bond measures requesting approval of funds to support clean energy and environmental protection efforts, repealing previously enacted energy-related bills, and bans on restricting natural gas. Ballot initiatives that are not energy-specific can concern a range of topics, such as constitutional conventions, electoral methods of public officials, term limits for select offices or redistricting.
For example, ballot measures asking whether the state should hold a convention to redraft its constitution could have long-lasting effects on the energy industry, but they are not inherently energy-specific initiatives. Constitutional conventions do not focus on a single issue; therefore, topics such as climate change and environmental regulations could be discussed if a convention is initiated.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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