Q1'22 wind speeds higher than average across most of US, Canada

Introduction

The Central and Eastern U.S. experienced better-than-average wind speeds in the first quarter of 2022, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of hourly 100-meter wind speed data. Project portfolios of the top 20 wind owners all deviated positively between 1.4% and 7.2% from the 20-year wind speed average.

Montana wind farms experienced wind speeds 16.4% above normal in the first quarter of 2022, the highest among U.S. states that also saw higher-than-average wind speeds within the Southwest Power Pool corridor that extends from Oklahoma through North Dakota. By contrast, Hawaii showed the biggest negative departure from normal, with first-quarter wind speeds 28% below the 20-year average. Western states, such as Idaho, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington, also experienced below-average wind speeds.

The top 20 wind owners by capacity experienced above-average wind speeds across their portfolios in the first quarter. Enel SpA recorded the highest average wind deviation among the group at 7.2% above normal, while Berkshire Hathaway saw wind deviations of 6.2% above normal.

Unlike the fourth quarter of 2021 — which showed higher-than-average wind speeds for the Pacific Northwest, portions of California, Maryland, New Mexico, Idaho and Hawaii — first-quarter 2022 wind speed averages for these areas in the U.S. were below normal. Hawaii reported the most dramatic deviation, with wind speeds 28% below the 20-year average. Meanwhile, Montana posted the highest deviation above normal at 16.4% across the state's 1,111 MW of applicable wind capacity. Canadian provinces including Manitoba, British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, which showed lower-than-average wind speeds in the fourth quarter of 2021, experienced first-quarter wind speeds 10% or more above the long-term average.

Among the top wind companies, Enel SpA saw the highest positive deviation, with 7.2% higher-than-average wind speeds during the period. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which owns 10,690 MW of wind capacity in the U.S., reported wind speeds 6.2% above average, while Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board and EDP - Energias de Portugal SA both posted portfolio-weighted averages of +4.5%. NextEra Energy Inc., whose operating fleet increased from 19,918 MW to 20,757 MW, had a portfolio-weighted average of +4.1%, and Xcel Energy Inc. was close behind with a portfolio-weighted average of 4.0%.

Enel SpA's exceptionally windy portfolio can be attributed to higher-than-average winds in the Central U.S. corridor of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska, where the company owns over 3,500 MW of capacity. Notable projects include the 300-MW Rock Creek Wind Project in Missouri, which experienced wind speeds 10% above normal, and the Smoky Hills Wind Farm and Smoky Hills II wind projects in Kansas totaling 250 MW, which had wind speeds 9.7% above the 20-year average. The 500-MW High Lonesome Wind Power in Texas operated by its subsidiary Enel Green Power North America Inc. was Enel's only project that posted below-average wind speeds in the first quarter, though the deviation was only 0.2% lower than normal.

Berkshire Hathaway's higher winds were bolstered, in part, by its large portfolio in Iowa, where first-quarter wind speeds were 7.3% above normal. The company owns over 6,700 MW of wind capacity in the state, operated mostly by its subsidiary MidAmerican Energy Co. These projects include the 500.8-MW Orient Wind Farm (Wind XI), which saw a positive wind deviation of +9.6%, and the 72-MW Marshall (Summerfield) Wind Farm, which reported wind speeds 11% above normal, the highest among Berkshire Hathaway-owned wind projects. The company owns 428.5 MW of capacity across three projects in Oregon and Washington — Goodnoe Hills, Leaning Juniper Wind Project and Marengo Wind Project — all of which experienced below-average wind speeds in the first quarter. The projects were commissioned in or before 2008.

ALLETE Inc. and Alliant Energy Corp., which own 1,885 MW and 1,854 MW of wind capacity, respectively, experienced wind speeds 6% or more above average in the first quarter of 2022. ALLETE's wind portfolio saw wind speeds 6.7% above average, with its 80-MW South Peak Wind Farm in Montana having reported wind speeds 18.5% above normal. Alliant Energy's projects reported wind speeds 6.5% above average as the company's 171.5-MW English Farms I Wind Project (New Wind) project saw the highest deviation of 8.8%. All of Alliant's wind projects in the first quarter experienced above-average winds, with the lowest — the 68-MW Cedar Ridge Wind project in Wisconsin — still 4.5% higher than average.

Morgan Stanley's Glacier Wind 1 and Glacier Wind 2 in Montana experienced the highest positive deviations from average during the quarter. The two projects combine for 205 MW of capacity and saw wind speeds 20.82% above average. Xcel Energy's 195-MW Courtenay Wind Farm in North Dakota was a close second, with first-quarter wind speeds 20.81% above normal. Consolidated Edison Inc.'s Big Timber Wind Energy (Greycliff Wind) followed with wind speeds 20% above average.

On the other end of the spectrum, five projects, all of which are in Hawaii, experienced wind speeds at least 20% below the 20-year average during the period. Wind speeds at the 69-MW Third Isle Wind Farm (Kawailoa Wind), jointly owned by Brookfield Asset Management Inc. and D.E. Shaw & Co. LP, were 32.8% below average, while those at the Kaheawa Pastures, Kaheawa Wind Power II and Kahuku Wind Power Project facilities, which Brookfield also owns, reported wind speeds 31% below average.

^{Regulatory Research Associates is a group within S&P Global Commodity Insights.}

^{Tony Lenoir and Joe Felizadio contributed to this article.}

^{This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.}