Country Risk Month Ahead: May 2025

Our country risk experts provide insight into events that could impact the geopolitical landscape in May.

Australia’s federal election

Elections in Australia are scheduled for May 3, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the Australian Labor party (ALP) seeking reelection and the opposition coalition of the Liberal and National parties led by Peter Dutton aiming to form a new government. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 out of 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. Multiple opinion polls indicate a close contest, with the ALP generally leading the Coalition since February. Both parties are likely to leverage Australia’s critical minerals reserves to seek an exemption from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, while maintaining a firm stance on biosecurity rules that the Trump administration has listed as a barrier to US agricultural exports.

Singapore’s general election

Singaporean President Tharman Shanmugaratnam dissolved parliament on April 15, ahead of the 2025 general election scheduled for May 3. The forthcoming election marks Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s first as the leader of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) since he took office as prime minister last year. The PAP has won every parliamentary election since Singapore became independent in 1965. If reelected, the PAP is highly likely to maintain policy continuity. A new PAP government would be highly likely to pursue expanded trade relationships and free trade agreements (FTAs) within the next 12 months, particularly in African and Latin American markets to offset the impact of US tariffs (currently the 10% baseline tariff).

Germany’s new government inauguration

Germany’s new coalition government is likely to formally start the new administrative term with the inauguration of incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his cabinet on May 6. The new government is likely to focus on continued EU integration, substantial enhancements of Germany’s defense capabilities and securing established multilateral trade relations. The coalition agrees on supporting the EU’s position of negotiating with the US before applying retaliatory tariffs in response to US trade policy. Planned fiscal policy changes within the regular annual budgets will help boost growth potential beyond the effects expected from major increases in public investment in defense and infrastructure.

Poland’s presidential election

Poland will hold its presidential election on May 18. If none of the candidates receives over 50% of the vote, a second round will take place on June 1. Current President Andrzej Duda will end his second term in August, and he cannot constitutionally run for office again. While the role of Poland’s president is mostly ceremonial, the president holds a strong veto power, allowing the incumbent to block the government’s legislative proposals by refusing to sign them into law. Duda’s presidential veto has been stalling Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda since his government came to power in December 2023. The ruling Civic Platform’s candidate and Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski has been consistently leading in Polish opinion polls, although his advantage over the second candidate, backed by the opposition Law and Justice, Karol Nawrocki, has been declining over the past month. The election of a government-backed candidate like Trzaskowski would likely facilitate smoother policymaking and speed up the justice system’s overhaul, supporting relations with the European Commission. The next candidate’s ability to build relations with the US administration will determine bilateral engagements related to the US military presence in Poland and defense.

Brazilian president’s trip to China

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will visit China on May 13–15 during the China-Latin America CELAC Summit. This will be Lula’s second official visit to China in his third term and his third meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since 2023. Brazilian policymakers have indicated that Lula’s trip reflects the need for Brazil to diversify its export markets, through “deepening relations with China” to mitigate potential impacts from current US trade policies. Brazilian officials have said that the goal of the trip goes beyond increased sales of Brazilian commodities, with plans to seek Chinese investment in reindustrialization, sustainable infrastructure, the digital economy and AI development within Brazil. The trip additionally appears to align with Brazil’s policy goal to promote increased representation for developing countries in global governance, including at the UN, the World Trade Organization and other multilateral institutions.

Venezuela’s legislative elections

Venezuela will hold elections on May 25 to appoint 285 National Assembly representatives, 24 state governors and 260 members of regional legislative councils. The main opposition alliance Unitary Platform has said it will not participate in the elections, claiming that minimum democratic guarantees have not been met. The opposition also continues to claim that President Nicolás Maduro’s reelection in July 2024 was fraudulent. 

President Trump’s Gulf visit

US President Donald Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on May 13–16, his second foreign visit of his second term as president. During his trip, Trump is very likely to meet with the Saudi King, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It has not been reported if he will meet with other regional leaders in Saudi Arabia, but it is likely that his visit will also include meetings in Qatar and the UAE.

It is highly likely that meetings will focus on securing Saudi commitments for purchases of military equipment and investment into strategic sectors in the US, including semiconductor fabrication, critical minerals mining and AI. There are also likely to be wider discussions about potential US and Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, ongoing operations against the Houthi in Yemen, and preparations to protect US military assets and key energy infrastructure in the region in that scenario.

Saudi Arabia has played a role in facilitating talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine, and Trump is likely to seek to leverage this influence to advance wider investment, trade and logistics initiatives in the region.

It is highly likely that discussions will also focus on US tariff policy toward Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.