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Russia’s Novorossiysk port and terminal and the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk on the Black Sea are key commercial locations for export of commodities critical for the global market, including grain, fertilizer and oil products.

We analyze the current state of play with regard to commercial shipping traveling in and out of these ports; presents a high-impact, lower-likelihood scenario in which escalating conflict in the Black Sea disrupts operations at these four ports; and finally examines the potential impacts across commercial vessel types, charterers and operators.

Black Sea escalation: Developing the scenario pathway

Black Sea commercial and naval targeting — A state of mutual deterrence

As of end August 2024, the land battle in Ukraine remains at a stalemate, with Russian forces having gained about 850 square km (0.15% of Ukraine’s total land area) since January 2024. In this context, Ukraine’s remote attack capabilities, including uncrewed aerial and surface vehicles (UAVs and USVs), have become increasingly critical. Ukraine has demonstrated an ongoing ability to target Russian vessels near Crimea with missile strikes and domestically manufactured USVs, the latest of which have a range of 960 km and can carry up to 860 kg of explosives. This has effectively forced Russia to redeploy its remaining naval vessels to Novorossiysk in southern Russia and has prevented it from mounting amphibious operations within Ukrainian waters in support of a ground offensive.

Following the expiry of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, Ukraine has successfully implemented its unilateral ‘humanitarian corridor’, launched in August 2023. This shipping corridor follows the coast through the territorial waters of the NATO states of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, deterring Russia from interfering with grain shipments and other marine cargo out of Odesa and southern Ukraine. As of June 25, 2024, more than 1,950 vessels had exported over 55 million metric tons (MMt) of cargo via Ukraine’s ‘humanitarian corridor’ since its launch on Aug. 15, 2023, including approximately 37.4 MMt of agricultural exports. About 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports are currently shipped by sea, with pre-war levels being restored by April 2024. 

However, Russia and Ukraine have previously demonstrated the capability to target commercial vessels heading to their opponent’s ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Key events in the past year have included:

−        Aug. 4, 2023 | Ukraine conducted USV attacks on a Russian-flagged oil tanker near the Kerch Strait Bridge and on a Russian naval vessel near Novorossiysk port.

−        Aug. 13, 2023 | A Russian naval vessel fired warning shots and intercepted a Turkish-flagged commercial ship heading to Ukraine in international waters of the Black Sea.

−        Nov.  8, 2023 | A Russian missile hit Liberia-flagged bulker vessel when it was maneuvering in the port of Pivdennyi, damaging the superstructure; the attack resulted in one fatality and three injuries.

−        March 6, 2024 | A Russian missile strike on Odesa caused damage to the Odesa port area and killed five people.

−        May 17, 2024 | A Ukrainian UAV strike reportedly hit the port area of Novorossiysk, damaging port infrastructure.

−        July 3, 2024 | A Ukrainian USV strike reportedly hit the port area of Novorossiysk, resulting in a fire that impacted port infrastructure.

−        July 4, 2024 | Near Reni, Odesa region, Ukrainian patrol boats intercepted the Cameroon-flagged general cargo vessel Usko Mfu on the Lower Danube and forced its detention for unlawfully crossing the Ukrainian border after making prior calls at the port of Sevastopol in the Russian-controlled Crimea.

−        July 10, 2024 | In Chornomorsk, Odesa region, Russian forces conducted a missile attack on Chornomorsk port, causing damage to port infrastructure and collateral damage to a Cameroon-flagged commercial vessel.

−        July 23, 2024 | In Port Kavkaz, Krasnodar region, a Ukrainian UAV strike reportedly hit the port area, damaging a Russian rail ferry used on the Port Kavkaz–Kerch ferry link.

−        July 24, 2024 | In Izmail, Odesa region, Russian forces conducted a missile and UAV attack on Izmail port, damaging port infrastructure.

This has led to a situation of mutual deterrence, where Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated their ability to disrupt commercial marine cargo to each other’s commercial ports, but refrain from doing so for fear of retaliation. At the same time, port infrastructure remains a target, exemplified by the ongoing Russian missile and UAV attacks on Odesa. Since the start of 2024, Ukraine has mounted 60 attacks on Russian refineries and fuel storage facilities within 1,500 km range of its UAVs, damaging or disrupting 25 refineries as of July 1 — representing about 18% of Russia's total refining capacity.

Looking ahead: Working with scenarios

Our current baseline forecast suggests that commercial shipping will continue to operate freely out of Russia’s Novorossiysk port and the nearby Sheskharis oil terminal, as well as Ukraine’s ports at Odesa, over the next 12 months. However, this outlook may be disrupted by geopolitical or military and naval trigger events. Below we outline a high-impact, lower-likelihood scenario pathway that could significantly impact operations at Black Sea ports and commercial shipping.

This scenario is hypothetical; it is neither the most likely scenario, nor the only pathway by which disruptions to these ports could occur. However, testing risk exposure through lower-likelihood, high-impact scenarios can help us plan for outcomes that might otherwise be overlooked.

Download the full complimentary paper where we cover:

• Escalation in the Black Sea: Scenario narrative
• Black Sea escalation: Modeling impacts to shipping
• Crude oil and refined product tankers are the vessels most susceptible to disruptions at Novorossiysk
• Novorossiysk and the Sheskharis terminals are crucial for Russian oil exports, particularly for large Suezmax tankers traveling onward to Asia
• Disruption to Novorossiysk would also significantly impact oil exports from Kazakhstan, with Western NOC tanker charters most affected
• Disruption at Odesa ports would have the largest impact on bulk carriers and general cargo vessels, particularly those transporting grain to global markets
• Greek and Turkish vessel operators are particularly exposed in the event of disruptions to Novorossiysk and/or Odesa ports
• Greek and Turkish operator exposure at Novorossiysk is evident in the tanker sector, but it is most pronounced in the bulk carrier and container classes
• At the three Odesa ports, Greek and Turkish operator exposure is most significant in the bulk carrier and general cargo classes

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