MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 19 - Constellations & Capital: Space Tech Enters New Orbit

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. Today, we’re joined by a bevy of reporters from the Market Intelligence news team to talk about all things space tech ahead of what is expected to be a historic IPO of SpaceX later this year. The series — and you can check these stories out on our CapIQ Pro website — is “Space Tech: Entering a New Orbit.” We might not be in the stratosphere, but we've got our reporter bases around the globe here, as you'll find out.

Leading us off will be Nick Lazzaro, who is on our Credits & Markets news team. Nick is in Pittsburgh. Then we’ve got my TMT news colleague, tech policy reporter Stefan Modrich. Also in the virtual house today are two of my global colleagues: Ikrama Ranjha, who’s in Islamabad, and Mark Gubagaras, who’s in Manila. Rounding things off are Iuri Struta in our London office, who covers capital markets, our boss Sarah James, who's in South Carolina, and me, Mike Reynolds, in New York.

Thanks, everybody, for being with us. The series covered a number of topics, including SpaceX’s upcoming historic market debut and its impact on the IPO market overall, the rise of space tech M&A, and the growing competition among satellite internet providers. Nick, let's start with the macro. How have expectations for US IPO activity changed since the beginning of 2026?

Nick Lazzaro: Hey, Mike. Thank you, I appreciate the question. The year began with these optimistic expectations for IPOs — that there was this continued uptrend that was going to continue since the sort of collapse we saw in 2022 and 2023.

No one expected a return to IPO activity like the hot market we saw in 2021. But there was still an expectation of a gradual recovery, especially with all the mega IPOs on the table. We were going to see the overall value of IPOs continue to rise. Maybe the total number of IPOs might not increase — maybe they'd be steady, maybe even go down — but overall, an optimistic uptrend continuing from what we've seen since 2023. And then, in came March. There was a lot of uncertainty and renewed volatility that hit the market. But as we see, stock markets are on track again.

Since April, they've been posting multiple record highs. So, the IPO outlook that we saw at the beginning of the year remains pretty much intact, and a big driver behind that is the expectation that these IPOs are going to be concentrated in tech. They'll be in industries that continue to benefit from overall enthusiasm in AI themes, and they are a bit more protected.

They're a bit more insulated from the big concerns right now in the market, like inflation and high oil prices. And it's not just going to be the big IPOs like SpaceX — the tech theme is going to support those IPOs across the board. There is an expectation of a large quantity of those that will support the overall IPO market this year.

Reynolds: So Nick, macroeconomics — the situation in Iran, the Middle East, higher oil prices, gas prices, et al. How are stakeholders viewing that?

Lazzaro: Yeah, it changes every day. We just got the high inflation reading for this week. Now, there are higher expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates the same this year, if not hike. But still, there is this sense that the brunt of what we saw in March was short-term. And IPOs take time to prepare; they take time to go through the review process and launch.

A company preparing for an IPO knows that over this process — over these months — something is going to happen. Especially with what we've seen in the past few years, it's “expect the unexpected.” So, the main idea I heard talking to sources was that overall, it's expected. If the IPO made sense a couple of months prior, the IPO will still make sense now.

The total process time from when the IPO prep starts to when the IPO actually goes public will usually be able to outlast any short-term issues in the broader stock market. The main issue will be just when that company decides to actually pull the trigger on the IPO and go public. They're mostly concerned about the pricing.

They might not want to go public right in March when stock indexes are down 10%, but they can afford to wait a couple of weeks until things look a little more optimistic. Also, one thing I noted talking to sources is that now, with the influx we've seen in capital in the private markets, they do have access to that extra capital.

Companies don't feel like they are in a rush to go public, because they have these other places they can go to get that capital. It's making them a little more flexible on the timing of when they actually want to go public and price their IPO.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. That's going to keep you busy, Nick. Thank you. Stefan, you're at bat now. Your reporting found that Defense Department awards to SpaceX outpaced NASA in the first seven months of fiscal 2026 — that reversed a longstanding pattern. Can you tell us: what does that shift tell us about how the federal government's relationship with SpaceX has evolved?

Stefan Modrich: Yeah, thanks, Mike. What it tells us, or at least what it signals to me, is that SpaceX's relationship with the federal government has become structurally different than it was even, say, five years ago. If you look at the contracts with NASA, that is essentially what built SpaceX — the commercial crew contracts, the human landing system — those are the foundation.

But looking at the current fiscal year data, Defense Department awards are running nearly double NASA's in just the first seven months. So that's a shift that's tracking with the expansion of Starshield, the SpaceX classified military satellite program, and a broader Pentagon push to rely on commercial launch providers for national security missions.

Where it gets complicated for the IPO is that classified contracts don't appear in public records at all. So, the $25 billion figure that we reported is a floor, not a ceiling. And so investors pricing this offering won't have full visibility into the government revenue picture there, and neither will we.

Reynolds: All right. Speaking of the upcoming IPO, you found something along the way that may hurt everyday investors who buy in from day one. Can you give us a little bit of flavor for what you found there?

Modrich: Sure. In reporting on this, this was definitely something that came as a bit of a surprise to me as well. But there's a well-established investor protection called the lock-up period. Basically, this prevents company insiders from dumping their shares the moment a company goes public.

And SpaceX is reportedly considering waiving this. A law professor at the University of Virginia who looked into this — used to work at the SEC — effectively said that doing so would eliminate retail investors' strongest legal recourse if something goes wrong.

The SEC's own advisory committee recommended a fix to this in March of last year, and nothing has happened yet, so…

Reynolds: Okay...

Modrich: Ordinary people who buy SpaceX stock on day one may have far less legal protection than they realize.

Reynolds: All right. Thus far, SpaceX has collected nearly $25 billion in taxpayer money going back to 2008, and that's just the contracts that we can see publicly. Why don't we know more about what the government is actually paying for here, Stefan?

Modrich: Sure. This goes back to, depending on where you sit, everyone's favorite or least favorite buzzword: classified. And that is how a significant portion of SpaceX's government work is classified.

The $25 billion figure we reported comes from the usaspending.gov database, which only captures those unclassified contracts. So, again, programs like Starshield — the SpaceX military satellite operation — are not going to show up in those public records in any meaningful way. So when people ask how dependent SpaceX is on the government, the honest answer is: we don't fully know.

But the public number that we do know is already staggering, and we just know that the real number is even higher.

Reynolds: All right. Thank you, Stefan. Appreciate it. Ikrama, with your work in this series, you looked at the growing competition in the satellite internet market. What kind of share does satellite have in the US broadband market, and what are the limits on satellite internet adoption?

Ikrama Ranjha: Hey, Mike. Thank you for that question. Satellite share of the U.S. broadband market has seen an uptick in recent months and years. Historically, satellites have been a very small part of the U.S. broadband market. As one analyst that I spoke with put it, it really is the last 1% of the telecom space.

That's because it mainly served rural and remote areas where other technologies simply weren't available. But that's starting to shift now, and Starlink is driving most of that change. According to Kagan estimates, satellite share of the U.S. broadband market now has risen to about 3%, and Starlink alone ended 2025 with roughly 2.8 million U.S. subscribers and about 9.2 million globally. Wow. That was up from fewer than 3 million at the start of 2024. So that kind of growth shows how quickly the market is expanding and why it's attracting new players, including Amazon. So there's clearly huge potential there.

That said, there are still limits on adoption. If you look at Starlink, for example, it generally delivers around 100 megabits per second. Now, that might be enough for most households, but it's still well below what fiber and cable deliver. Analysts I spoke with pointed out that satellite also struggles in dense urban markets and indoor environments, where terrestrial networks have clear performance advantages.

To give Starlink's example again, it is trying to expand adoption through differentiated offerings, whether that's residential plans for RVs or boats, or just lower-cost options for international and lower-income users. So there's still a significant opportunity for the market to grow from here, and differentiated offerings might help adoption.

Reynolds: All right. As you said, Starlink's definitely upped its ante over the course of the last couple of years. And what about its first-mover advantage? Why is that difficult for competitors to replicate at this point?

Ranjha: Mike, Starlink's first-mover advantage really comes down to scale and vertical integration.

It already operates roughly 10,000 satellites and also benefits from SpaceX’s launch capabilities. Falcon 9 launches close to three times a week. That kind of launch cadence allows Starlink to continuously expand its constellation at a pace competitors haven't matched yet. If you look at Amazon for comparison, Amazon has launched just over 200 satellites for its network.

Now, that scale gap is incredibly difficult to overcome, and it's why Starlink maintains such a strong lead. Amazon is planning to launch a few thousand more satellites in the coming years and has signed dozens of commercial agreements for Amazon LEO. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos' space venture, Blue Origin, does provide rocket launch capabilities, but it simply does not meet the frequency of SpaceX as of yet.

Reynolds: Amazon — I believe they acquired Globalstar. Does that help them catch up at all, or is that, again, the numbers you cited, that's a major disadvantage?

Ranjha: The Globalstar deal would certainly give Amazon satellite operations, infrastructure, and globally authorized mobile satellite service spectrum licenses.

So it is certainly a major step in strengthening its satellite connectivity ambitions. It also positions Amazon to launch direct-to-device services starting in 2028, and also includes an agreement for Apple devices to use Amazon LEO. That's a meaningful boost in terms of spectrum access and early demand.

So I would say the Globalstar deal strengthens Amazon's position and makes it a much more serious competitor, but Starlink still maintains a substantial lead in deployment, scale, and market momentum.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Thank you, Ikrama. I appreciate it. Mark, as your part of the series, you looked at recent M&A in the space technology market. What did the SpaceX, xAI, and Amazon-Globalstar deals contribute to space tech M&A value so far this year?

Mark Gubagaras: Hello, Mike. Great to speak with you. This year is actually far from over, and yet it looks likely to be a banner year for space technology in terms of M&A activity, and that includes the SpaceX-xAI and Amazon-Globalstar deals. If you're going to look at the trends, especially in terms of investment activity in space tech for the past few years dating back to 2023, there's really been a big surge in M&A activity in the first few months of 2026.

In the first quarter alone, that's when the SpaceX-xAI deal was announced. We already had $254.6 billion in transaction value from 98 transactions.

Reynolds: Really? Okay. That's a big surge.

Gubagaras: That's really big. That's according to our data here from Market Intelligence. Then Amazon announced the deal to acquire Globalstar in April, and that's also a significant transaction. We're not yet done with the second quarter, but it's $13.46 billion from 25 transactions. What's going to happen, we don't know yet. We'll look forward to that. But there will likely be some more M&A deals waiting for us in the months to come.

Reynolds: Do you think those two deals, Mark, inform what we might see for M&A trends in space tech for the balance of this year, maybe into next year as well?

Gubagaras: That only shows there are so many things to look forward to in the space, in terms of M&A. There are really a lot of factors driving this broad interest in space technology. Analysts have pointed out at least four major factors: the focus on acquiring spectrum and orbital licenses; vertical integration, which has been the strategy of companies such as SpaceX and Amazon; the rise of sovereign constellation fleets; and, of course, the increased possibility of global defense spending, which is obvious in the case of SpaceX — they have Starshield right now, which is the defense program.

In the case of Amazon, what's important right now is to get the spectrum, which they will be getting from Globalstar upon finishing the acquisition, specifically mobile satellite service spectrum licenses, which will be part of the satellite network that they have, which is Amazon LEO. That would support the deployment of its direct-to-device services starting in 2028. Some analysts are a bit skeptical as to whether Amazon will be able to catch up, but some also express optimism that by later this year or the beginning of next year, Amazon will appear to be a formidable competitor. But they'll have a big catch-up to do with SpaceX.

Reynolds: Good deal. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it.

Okay. Iuri, SpaceX is just one of several expected major tech IPOs this year, including OpenAI and Anthropic. There is a discussion that mega-cap IPOs could suck out capital from the rest of the IPO market. Is that a concern?

Iuri Struta: Yeah, thanks, Mike.

Some people have been raising this as a concern, and yeah, it is a concern largely because such large IPOs have not happened in the past, at least in the US. If all these three IPOs, or at least two, happen this year, these are trillion-dollar IPOs.

There haven't been such large IPOs in the past, and obviously they are expected to raise a lot of money, and there's this concern that they're going to suck capital out of the market and there won't be enough capital for smaller IPOs to list.

But at least from the reporting that I've done, I think a lot of investors and investment bankers believe there is no shortage of capital. There is a lot of capital that's looking for the right opportunities. So I would say that if the SpaceX IPO goes well, then this could attract even more capital into the market that will probably be chasing similar opportunities.

To wrap up, I would say that if the SpaceX IPO does well, then this is a good sign for the entire IPO market. It's definitely not a bad sign that it's going to suck out $70 billion of capital — I think this is the figure they want to raise in the IPO.

Reynolds: Iuri, obviously this is the big fish, but what other trends have you been seeing in IPOs in the tech sector prior to this? And we don't exactly know when this is going to happen yet, do we?

Struta: No, we don't know. And obviously the IPO markets historically are very fragile, or they're very moody, so they very quickly go from being hot to not being hot.

It's a good question because historically the IPO market has not worked for everyone. The IPO window has not been open for everyone in the market, but it's always been more topical, where certain themes have worked and other themes are not working. For example, artificial intelligence and AI-adjacent plays — the AI picks and shovels play — still works and has now broadened as far as it can get away from semiconductors.

Semiconductors still work very well, but now you have a lot of industrial plays, industrial companies that investors like. We've had this recent IPO of Madison Air Solutions. They provide air filters for data centers. This is as far from AI software as it can get, but investors like this name, and the IPO has done really well because they're selling to data centers, and there aren't many alternatives for this kind of product. So in addition to AI and AI-adjacent space, technology obviously is also working — not just SpaceX, but anything that's related can do and has done IPOs, and they have performed well.

The defense sector, for obvious reasons — the geopolitical uncertainty and everything — is working very well. What is not working right now is software, for example. Right now, no software works, and it will take some time before people discern the AI winners and losers in software. For now, if you are a software company and you want to go the IPO route, it's a very challenging environment, and it will stay so for a while probably.

If you are doing it, you're probably going to do it at a big discount to what you expect or what your investors expect.

Reynolds: So Iuri, if I'm reading you correctly, hot and cold. Has the market overall for tech in the last couple of years — have there been a lot of IPOs, or are we just heating up now?

Iuri Struta: Yeah. So '25 is definitely an improvement compared to '23 and '24. In these two years, the IPO window in the tech sector was essentially shut in '23 and '24.

There were no significant IPOs. I think the recovery started at the end of 2024, and it continued in 2025. Now we need to see if 2026 sees the IPO window continue to open a bit further. I would not expect the opening to be very wide this year, but probably a little bit more than in 2025 could be expected, and this will certainly be very good progress.

For example, in '21 and '22, the digital transformation trend post-pandemic — a lot of free money, zero interest rates — this was a very good environment for tech IPOs. Valuations were sky-high for a lot of tech companies. That was basically the highest number of IPOs since the dot-com bubble.

After this big opening, it went from the spigot being open to essentially nothing in less than one year. Now we're seeing a bit of a return to normalcy in the tech IPO market.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. We're only in May, so we'll see what the rest of the year brings.

Iuri, thank you very much for joining us. I appreciate it. Thank you. All right, we're getting a little bit to the end here.

Sarah James: Yeah. Thanks, Mike. Obviously, the central theme around the series was the upcoming SpaceX IPO. There's so much capital involved. It's such a market event. So we did focus the package of stories around that. But in researching and looking into this, what I didn't realize was just the sheer number of these either large or mega constellations that are either in existence already or are planned.

We found that there were roughly 33 mega constellations either in existence or planned to launch, and a good number of these are launching their first satellites later this year. In a lot of cases, these are very speculative plays. They have announced these grand ambitions and these big constellations that they've outlined, but they don't actually have anything in space today. If these 33 mega constellations all get their planned satellites up, that's a lot of satellites in space. 10,000 is one thing, but SpaceX is talking about an orbital data center plan that involves 1 million satellites.

And they're not the only ones. They're not the only ones making plans for orbital data centers. One of the questions that came up as we were talking to people is: what is the right number of satellites in space, and does each country need its own sovereign fleet, especially for defense purposes?

Analysts feel that there's plenty of space in the sky, but is there room in the market to support all of the constellations that have been planned? That is yet to be determined. That's why there's so much M&A right now that's expected.

Maybe some of these constellations that are planned don't actually get off the ground, but someone comes in and buys them to take up their spectrum licenses or the satellites they've built. Some of these are venture capital-backed. Is there enough venture capital to support a multi-billion dollar satellite effort?

These are all questions that have yet to be determined. I do think we're going to see more M&A. I also think we'll see more joint ventures as maybe some of the smaller to mid-size or incumbent satellite players — some of the GEOs, for instance — maybe they don't have the wherewithal on their own to compete with SpaceX, but maybe if they band together, maybe if they bring their spectrum licenses together, then they become a little bit more formidable out there.

So I do think it's going to be a very active space, and I look forward to covering it going forward.

Reynolds: It sounds like another series is down the road — space tech, more companies, more orbits. Just a suggestion. Anyway, that concludes this episode of MediaTalk. Many thanks to Nick, Stefan, Ikrama, Mark, Iuri, and Sarah for sharing their thoughts and insights about the burgeoning space technology marketplace.

Thanks, everybody.

All: Thank you, Mike.

Reynolds: All right. Before we go, I just want to let you know that the full series of stories, with charts and figures, is available on CapIQ Pro. Please check it out. This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. We'll catch up soon on the next installment of “MediaTalk.”