Which companies will step up to the plate as ESPN exits MLB rights deal

With ESPN Inc. and MLB ending their media relationship at the close of the 2025 season, the big question is which new partner or partners will step up to the plate to carry MLB's national roster — and how much could they pay for it.

Ahead of a March 1 deadline to opt out of the final three years of their existing contract, Walt Disney Co.'s sports programmer and the baseball league mutually agreed to terminate their media rights agreement. Under the deal, ESPN (US) aired 30 regular-season games, mostly in the exclusive "Sunday Night Baseball" window. The contract also covered the Home Run Derby during the league's All-Star break, the entire Wild Card playoff round and 10 spring training games.

The break marks the end of a 35-year relationship between MLB and ESPN. Analysts say the decision is significant in multiple ways. On the one hand, it signals how distribution strategies for sports rights holders are fracturing as the traditional pay TV universe continues to shrink. On the other, it illustrates how network owners are prioritizing profits across linear and digital platforms.

"In making this decision, we applied the same discipline and fiscal responsibility that has built ESPN's industry-leading live events portfolio as we continue to grow our audience across linear, digital and social platforms," ESPN said in a statement.

What went wrong

Prior to the termination, MLB and ESPN were in the midst of a seven-year deal averaging $550 million per season. Under a previous eight-year deal, which ran from 2014 through 2021, ESPN aired up to 90 regular-season games, including nonexclusive contests on Monday and Wednesday nights, and the Home Run Derby. The average annual value of that contract was $700 million.

"Unfortunately, in recent years, we have seen ESPN scale back their baseball coverage and investment in a way that is not consistent with the sport's appeal or performance on their platform," MLB said in a statement. "Given that MLB provides strong viewership, valuable demographics and the exclusive right to cover unique events like the Home Run Derby, ESPN's demand to reduce rights fees is simply unacceptable. As a result, we have mutually agreed to terminate our agreement."

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred in a memo to owners criticized ESPN's lack of coverage outside of the games, despite the sport scoring gains in viewership and attendance.

ESPN scored a five-year average audience high of 1.51 million "Sunday Night Baseball" watchers last season. The nine games comprising the 2024 Wild Card round averaged 2.82 million viewers on ABC (US), ESPN and ESPN2 (US), the most ever for the playoff round, up 25% from 2023.

For its part, ESPN said it is open to exploring new ways to reach baseball fans across its platforms beyond 2025 and expressed gratitude for its long-standing relationship with MLB.

Eyes on the prize

ESPN's move to exit the MLB deal is part of a plan that could help parent Disney reach guidance it issued for its sports segment to return to core earnings before interest and tax growth of low single digits in its fiscal 2026, wrote MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman. The segment reported a double-digit decline in its current fiscal 2025.

Fishman noted that the sports segment in fiscal 2025 will incur some $700 million in incremental sports rights fees, including a $500 million uptick from its new NBA deal, and escalators from other properties.

"ESPN's MLB opt-out was one of the biggest swing factors to allow Disney to achieve this guidance to return to EBIT growth to save roughly $600 million in programming expenses less advertising revenue," Fishman wrote.

The analyst cited Disney's decision to exit its Formula 1 deal, carrying an average annual value of $90 million. The programmer may also drop its Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) deal, which carries $550 million in average annual value and expires this year. Reports have indicated that UFC wants its next US media rights deal to bring in more than $1 billion annually. Fishman believes that the most likely outcome will see Disney split the UFC package with at least one other partner to limit the negative impact on fiscal 2026 and beyond.

Splitting rights

Reports indicated that ESPN was interested in providing local rights distribution for some MLB clubs as part of its upcoming ESPN flagship streaming service, which is set to launch later this year.

"ESPN has presented regional programming ideas to continue working with MLB with the launch of their direct-to-consumer product" said Mike Johnson, sports analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan. "I guess they could still form some sort of smaller agreement, but it's probably doubtful at this point." Johnson noted that Manfred recently indicated that he wants the league to take a more national approach to its rights.

Manfred's memo said MLB does not believe that pay TV, ESPN's primary distribution outlet, is the future of video distribution or the best platform for baseball content. The commissioner said that in December 2024, ESPN was available in 53.6 million homes, down from its peak of over 100 million in 2011.

Instead, Manfred told the owners MLB is interested in broadcast and streaming vehicles, adding that MLB would present owners with at least two potential options "over the next few weeks."

Potential partners

In the meantime, analysts are pointing to numerous current and new players that might take a swing at the ESPN rights.

Kagan principal analyst Justin Nielson feels that Apple Inc., which has been strategic in assessing sports properties, is perhaps "best-suited" to pick up the ESPN content. Nielson noted Apple holds global rights to Major League Soccer and is streaming a pair of MLB games in the US on Friday nights. The company is paying about $85 million per season for its existing baseball package.

Nielson also thinks The CW (US) and ION (US) are "the wildcards here if the price is right." The broadcast networks have been building sports rights rosters, with Nexstar Media Group Inc.'s The CW presenting NASCAR's Xfinity circuit and ACC college football and basketball, among other properties. The E.W. Scripps Co.-owned ION has become an advocate of women's sports, broadcasting WNBA games on Friday nights and National Women's Soccer League matches on Saturday nights.

The big question, of course, is price. "Who has the budget to pay more than ESPN for the MLB?" said Kagan principal analyst Scott Robson. If it comes down to deep pockets, he added, "My guess is that Amazon gets a piece."

Curt Pires, principal of sports program management and distribution company CAP Sports, agrees, putting forward Amazon as "the likely candidate. I also think The CW would love to have 'Sunday Night Baseball.' Can they afford it?"

Pires also questions whether MLB can match the total they were getting from ESPN by piecing together a collection of broadcast and streaming deals.

If MLB is looking to partner with a company that offers broadcast and streaming, NBC (US) and NBCUniversal Media LLC's streaming service Peacock are considered to be potential MLB players. The outlets could build on a roster that already carries "Sunday Night Football" and will combine on an expansive NBA game coverage under the league's new 11-year rights deals, tipping off with the 2025-26 season.

The company dropped its Sunday morning MLB package on Peacock in 2022, paying some $30 million annually. Roku is paying about $10 million annually for that game package, which precedes the first pitch on the other Sunday afternoon contests.

Another option would be Paramount Global's CBS Sports, which held MLB "Game of the Week" and exclusive playoff and World Series rights from 1990 to 1993. Aggregate streaming platform Paramount+ is home to local market NFL games and an array of soccer competitions, among other properties.

Beyond ESPN, MLB's current key national rights holders are Fox Corp.'s FOX (US) and FOX Sports 1 (US), and Warner Bros. Discovery's TBS (US). Fox is paying $730 million on average annually, while Warner Bros. Discovery is paying $470 million on average annually. Both deals expire after the 2028 season.

Whether either company has an appetite for more baseball or if they can fit into MLB's preferred broadcast and streaming lineup remains to be seen. Fox does not offer a subscription video-on-demand service, but it plans to enter that arena this year. Warner Bros. Discovery's Max streams the company's sports portfolio, but the media conglomerate is not in the broadcast business in the US.