US on track to miss Paris pledges after federal climate legislation stalls

With congressional climate and clean energy legislation at an impasse, the U.S. is falling farther behind its commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change — a scenario that could have global implications, observers warned.

"If this truly marks the end of the road for congressional action, it's a major setback for the U.S.' ability to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions," Ben King, an analyst with research firm Rhodium Group, said in an interview. "We spent nearly two years debating what to do about this and every day that goes by, we're that much closer to having to achieve that 2030 target."

King was the lead author of a report on emissions that was issued July 14, coincidentally the same day that talks in Congress broke down. Part of a series of "stock-taking" assessments, the report said the U.S., under current policies, is on track to reduce emissions to 24%-35% below 2005 levels by 2030. This compares with the country's pledge under the Paris Agreement to reach 50%-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, the report noted.

Even five years later, emissions could still be "stubbornly high" at 26%-41% below 2005 levels, the report added, depending on economic growth and fossil fuel prices.

President Joe Biden said at the international climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021 that the U.S. would "sprint" to cut economy-wide emissions in half by the end of this decade, before reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

But King said meeting this goal will be exceedingly difficult without robust federal action that includes Congress, as all other options for carbon reductions — including state policies, federal regulations and executive actions by the president — would then have to deliver so much more, and faster.

"Everything else has to go right," King said. "And we haven't had a great history of that recently."

The conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court recently limited the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's authority to regulate carbon emissions from power plants. The high court may also consider a legal challenge to the Biden administration's strengthened emissions standards for light-duty vehicles.

Transportation in 2020 accounted for 33% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and the electricity sector contributed 31%, according to the latest EPA inventory. In total, energy-related emissions jumped 6.5% in 2021 and are expected to rise another 1.5% this year before flattening in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Such trajectories, in addition to the absence of federal policies codified by law, could have ramifications for efforts to keep global warming from reaching critical levels, experts say.

"U.S. leadership is critical because we're the largest historical emitter on the planet," Michael E. Mann, a professor at Pennsylvania State University and climate scientist, wrote in an email. "It will be difficult to convince China, India and other industrializing countries to rein in their emissions without the U.S. taking a leadership role."

Manchin: US needs 20 years to replace fossil fuels

Citing inflation concerns, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., a critical swing vote in the evenly divided Senate, has indicated he is willing to return to the negotiating table with fellow Democrats once inflation starts to ease. But in a July 15 interview with West Virginia radio network MetroNews, Manchin also said any proposal to phase out fossil fuels in the near term would be a showstopper and that the energy transition would take another 20 years.

"In 10 years, you're not going to replace the horsepower of fossil fuels," the senator told MetroNews. "I'm not going to be part of eliminating what this country needs to run the economic engine and the lives of human beings throughout America."

Biden set a goal to decarbonize the U.S. power sector by 2035, which the administration said was needed to electrify vehicles and buildings and reach the net-zero target.

Manchin rejected Biden's sweeping climate plan, dubbed Build Back Better, in December 2021 after the House passed it just a few weeks earlier. Following months of negotiations, the West Virginia senator said July 14 he could not back additional climate spending in a reconciliation bill until he sees new inflation data in August.

Some hope remains

The collapse of the climate bill also affects $300 billion in clean energy tax breaks utilities sought as they invest billions in new solar and wind energy farms over the next decade to meet their own emission reduction targets.

A few companies that earlier this month called on congressional leaders to pass the climate legislation said they are still hopeful the subsidies can be part of a revised or new bill.

"We are hopeful that Congress will reestablish climate change talks to make practical and meaningful progress that addresses the growing climate crisis, while also unleashing American innovation and competitiveness," Exelon Corp. President and CEO Chris Crane said in an emailed statement. Most of Exelon's customers expect action on climate change, Crane added.

A statement from the Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. echoed that it hopes Congress "continues to look for a path forward to pass these important clean energy investments."

Mann, the climate scientist, predicted the final verdict will come at the ballot box in November.

"It’s fair to say that the fate of the planet, in a sense, rests on massive Democratic turnout in the mid-term elections," Mann wrote.

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