Methane emissions from the largest U.S. shale oil and gas plays gained momentum in 2021 through the first quarter of 2022 after a lull in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a European energy data analytics firm said in a report based on satellite measurements.
The firm, Kayrros SAS, called the trend "worrisome."
Trade groups representing America's oil and gas producers pushed back against the report, saying June 29 that the findings by Kayrros do not match data from other sources outside the industry.
Satellite measurements
Kayrros' preliminary data in the June 27 report showed Appalachia's methane emissions dropped 25% in 2020 as COVID spread, but gained 7% in 2021 as production volume returned. First-quarter 2022 data seemed to show an acceleration of emissions, but Kayrros was not as confident about those numbers. The data firm said it expects to see an increase in Appalachian production volumes as demand for LNG exports to Europe grows.
The Kayrros data showed that Permian Basin methane emissions jumped by roughly one-third in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and by nearly 50% year over year, surpassing pre-COVID levels. "The increase gained momentum in [the first quarter of 2022] and looks at risk of accelerating further as drilling and fracking activity respond to high oil and gas prices and calls for more production," Kayrros said in the report.
Kayrros attributed the rise in Permian emissions to small, privately-backed drillers "that may be less disciplined about methane abatement than publicly-traded, larger producers."
"Given the high warming power of methane — more than 80 times [that] of carbon dioxide in the first 20 years — and the short window available to significantly reduce emissions, the lack of progress achieved so far is a concern," Kayrros said.
Industry criticism
Two industry groups, the ONE Future Coalition and the Marcellus Shale Coalition, challenged the accuracy and validity of the Kayrros analysis of the Appalachian data. ONE Future is a group of 53 natural gas companies, from upstream drillers such as EQT Corp. to utilities such as Dominion Energy Inc. and Duke Energy Corp. The Marcellus Shale Coalition is the trade group for Appalachia's gas companies. Both groups questioned whether Kayrros can distinguish between gas wells and neighboring coal mines, which are high emitters of methane.
"There are some questions whether the technology Kayrros uses is precise enough to distinguish between sources," ONE Future Executive Director Jim Kibler said. "It even admits that its sample size is not adequate to characterize" the Appalachian Basin. Further, without access to Kayrros' data, ONE Future cannot interpret it, Kibler said.
ONE Future has its own data, collected by satellites, aircraft and ground monitoring, that is used to identify and prevent leaks, Kibler said. Two of its member companies are working with the United Nations to take ONE Future's measurement and verification processes global.
The Marcellus Shale Coalition said the Kayrros data and conclusions do not match its member companies' data or that of firms such as Project Canary, which monitors emissions to certify the low-carbon status of natural gas as demanded by European LNG buyers and other customers.
Six of America's top 10 gas producers operate in Appalachia's Marcellus and Utica shales. Appalachian shale gas drillers have repeatedly told investors that their drilling plans include only modest growth as they keep spending down and reap the rewards of high commodity prices. The basin has also nearly filled its available pipelines, limiting how much more production it can add.
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