Summary
After a busy year of logistics network disruptions, volatile costs and geopolitical upheaval there’s no respite for supply chain decision-makers as we head into the end of 2024 and look ahead to 2025.
The other side of peak season: Supply chains have had to deal with a plethora of disruptions in 2024, resulting in accelerated shipping. Manufacturing remains depressed, weighing on the mid-term outlook for supply chain activity. Near-term challenges include strikes and storms on the US east coast, uncertainty on de-minimis strategies and an imminent shift in shipping alliances and capacity.
The big one arrives: In a year of 70 elections globally, the US elections carry the biggest future risks for supply chains with the prospect of increased tariffs, trade deals to be done and shifts in industrial policy ahead. Regulatory uncertainties also persist in the EU ahead of the implementation of CBAM, while conflicts continue to be a factor.
Luxurious resilience and sustainability: The supply chain travails of the pandemic era shone a light on the need for resilience, while later (relative) calm has led to a pullback in investments in resilience. Technology spending is being misdirected. Sustainable sourcing, meanwhile, including the circular economy, is becoming more important.
Speakers
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Chris Rogers
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Head of Supply Chain Research
Chris Rogers is Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence. He has over 25 years of research experience, including more than a decade covering global supply chains. He has worked at firms including Panjiva (acquired by S&P Global in 2018), Bloomberg, JP Morgan, and most recently freight forwarder Flexport. His coverage includes corporate decision-making, international trade policy, and logistics network operations.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Agnieszka Maciejewska
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Associate Director, Models & Scenarios, Global Intelligence & Analytics
Agnieszka is managing GTAS Forecasting team, which is creating bilateral trade forecast and team of analysts responsible for updating macroeconomic Global Link Model.
Agnieszka is managing GTAS Forecasting team, which is creating bilateral trade forecast and team of analysts responsible for updating macroeconomic Global Link Model. Agnieszka is focused on most recent trends in trade and trade pattern changes. She is contributing to supply chain analysis in reports, articles, conferences and webinars.
Agnieszka works on development of the S&P Global Global Link Model, which is the most comprehensive global macroeconomic model commercially available. Designed for forecasting and scenario planning, it links individual country models with each other and with key global drivers of performance.
Agnieszka holds a Master of Arts in international trade from University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics where she also completed doctoral studies.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
John Raines
Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk
As S&P Global Market Intelligence’s lead analyst for United States, Dr. John provides in-depth insight into the inner workings of the US government and its electoral cycle.
Dr. John presents his analysis in a manner that allows clients not only to understand the context of current US and global news events, but how those incidents will impact their industry's performance over time. He has appeared in numerous media outlets, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, Time Magazine, BBC, NPR, CNBC, and The Associated Press, discussing topics like US elections, American foreign policy, and domestic legislation. In his role of principal global risk adviser, he has delivered dozens of keynote speeches and spoken to thousands of clients on macro country risk topics, from issues like populism and trade protection to US sanctions and international terrorism. In his previous work experience with the U.S. Department of State, he held roles responsible for conducting economic policy for the United States Embassy in Panama and overseeing the American Citizen Services unit in Hong Kong. He also worked at the World Bank, where he managed several projects in production of the World Development Indicators (WDI). His other assignments have included the U.S. Department of the Treasury as a Presidential Management Fellow, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the World Trade Center.
Dr. John earned a Ph.D. in political science from Ohio State University and a master's degree in international relations from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Study (SAIS).
Moderator
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Eric Oak
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Senior Supply Chain Analyst
Eric focuses on developing data driven research on international trade, logistics, and supply chains. He has multi-industry experience in global procurement ranging from paperboard boxes to enterprise software, and holds an MS in Business Analytics from Babson College and a BS in Supply Chain and Operations Management from Miami University.