S&P Global — 5 December 2024
Daily Update: December 5, 2024
For Good or Ill, AI Will Impact Society
By Nathan Hunt
Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy
Moral behavior has no pattern. There is no algorithm for right and wrong. If there were, AI could identify the pattern and recreate it on demand. But AI lacks a moral compass. It simply extracts and extrapolates correlations or patterns in data. However, amorality is not immorality. AI can be applied to society in beneficial or harmful ways, depending on human motivations and needs. A team at S&P Global has examined the potential impacts of AI on society in a recent article: “AI and society: Implications for global equality and quality of life.”
Healthcare, education and food are critical issues for any modern society. While AI can certainly streamline mundane tasks by reducing customer service wait times and handling time-consuming administrative duties, there is the potential for far-reaching progress in these three areas.
S&P Global has previously examined AI’s impact on the healthcare sector. Applied effectively, AI could affect healthcare at every stage, from research and innovation to diagnosis and prevention. From a patient perspective, the possibility of personalized care with improved monitoring, reduced errors, quicker recovery, better access to preventive treatments and more streamlined interactions could yield better health outcomes. AI could also benefit underserved, low-income and rural communities through AI-assisted telemedicine and diagnosis. One potential downside for healthcare outcomes would be if administrators used AI to reduce staffing and commoditize care. AI can recognize patterns that might be hidden from the human eye, but it has no bedside manner.
To date, discussions of AI’s impact on education have focused on the negative, as if students hadn’t plagiarized papers before ChatGPT. But AI can also democratize tutoring and customized learning for millions of struggling students in low-income areas. Teachers can leverage AI to provide personalized learning experiences in often-overcrowded classrooms.
AI’s impact on food may be positive or negative depending on one’s attitude toward genetically modified organisms. Synthetic biology powered by AI can expand the creation of genetically modified foods to address nutrition, scarcity and yield on a fast-warming planet. While hunger remains a global issue, AI-enabled synthetic biology also could risk the introduction of organisms with net-negative impacts on environments and humans.
The ultimate risk for AI in society is its impact on global inequality. So far, access to AI tools is far from democratized. Approximately 2.6 billion people (about one-third of the world’s population) do not have internet access. Even in countries where AI is available, its commercialization requires massive investments of capital and resources. If AI does lead to additional productivity, those gains could benefit a very limited group of companies, countries or individuals. AI managed improperly could become what Russian-American scientist Peter Turchin describes as a “wealth pump” — transferring wealth from the average person to a few companies as humans are replaced and services are reduced.
Today is Thursday, December 5, 2024, and here is today’s essential intelligence.
Saudi Energy Minister Sees Net Zero as Scenario That 'Can Never Happen'
Net zero carbon scenarios are impossible to achieve, with security of energy supplies key to solving the challenges of sustainability and affordability, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Dec. 3. The minister said at the Saudi Green Initiative Forum in Riyadh that the world is currently going through a "reality check" on net zero and energy security. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, has repeatedly pushed back on predictions that fossil fuel demand will peak, including the International Energy Agency's forecast that this will occur by the end of the decade.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
Economic Outlook US Q1 2025: Steady Growth, Significant Policy Uncertainty
Heading into 2025, the US economy is expanding at a solid pace. While President-elect Donald Trump outlined numerous policy proposals during his campaign, S&P Global Ratings' economic outlook for 2025 hasn't changed appreciably. This is partly because we have taken a probabilistic approach and are assuming partial implementation of campaign promises.
—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings
Blockchain Meets Covered Bonds
Digital Pfandbrief issuances by Germany-based Berlin Hyp AG and Natixis Pfandbriefbank AG in August 2024 have sparked discussions about integrating blockchain technology in covered bond issuances. The first digital covered bonds were issued by Societe Generale in 2019 and 2020. The recent issuances are part of a cautious trend in 2024 toward digital bond issuances across different sectors, driven primarily by pilot schemes run by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings
Increased Diesel Availability Pressures Prices in Brazil's Main Ports
Higher diesel availability in the Brazilian market has been pressuring prices on an FCA basis in the last quarter of the year at the main ports of the country. Platts launched ultra-low sulfur diesel FCA assessments for the Brazilian market effective Dec. 2, 2024. Since Platts started engaging with the FCA market on Oct. 9, an expected downturn in liquidity with the cooling of agricultural activity was observed in Brazil's four main ports.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
Iran Faces Energy Crisis as Oil Output Declines Amid Sanctions, President Says
Iran's energy shortage has neared a point of crisis due to a continuous decline in oil output amid US sanctions, President Masoud Pezeshkian said Dec. 2, with the country struggling for investment to maintain wells and other infrastructure, while domestic fuel demand keeps rising. "The imbalance trend since several past administrations has arrived at a crisis. Today we cannot even inject gas into oil wells to extract oil," Pezeshkian said in a televised interview.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
Next in Tech | Ep. 196: Managing Third Party Risk
Much of business success depends on successfully managing risk, but that includes not only those aspects under direct control, but also the risks in relationships with third parties. It’s a task that can be daunting for any business and Luke Nordlie joins host Eric Hanselman to discuss the challenges and technology-based approaches to risk assessment, monitoring and compliance.
—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Webinar: Global Credit Outlook 2025 — Americas/EMEA Session (Dec. 5, 2024)
As a key risk to the continuation of favorable credit conditions and general economic resilience, policy uncertainty is blurring the picture for 2025 — against a backdrop of coalescing geopolitical risks.
S&P Global Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook 2025 will present our macroeconomic and credit outlooks for the year ahead, including our base-case forecasts and key risks for what promises to be another perilous period for the global economy and markets.
—Watch the webinar from S&P Global Ratings