18 February 2026
February 2026 light vehicle production forecast
By Mike Wall
Article Summary
S&P Global Mobility provides monthly updates to our global light vehicle production forecast, offering timely insights into global auto production trends.
See previous months’ forecasts in our LinkedIn newsletter.
Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.
Here's a closer look at global production data by region and our updated February production forecast.
Top takeaways for the month
Following a year of uneven recovery and shifting consumer sentiment, the near-term automotive industry outlook is characterized by relative stability in overall global vehicle sales and a recalibrated electrification trajectory. Increased competition from Chinese automakers is notable, while the risk of DRAM chip shortages and other semiconductor issues remains a concern. Carmakers are expected to mitigate potential supply chain interruptions by absorbing higher costs.
Although global light vehicle demand is projected to remain flat in 2026, global vehicle production is forecasted to edge down modestly to reflect the state of maturing markets and evolving regional factors. Nevertheless, the February forecast update reflects a mix of mostly modest positive revisions as adjustments are made to account for ongoing trade dynamics and regional factors.
February 2026 light vehicle production forecast
Regional highlights
Europe
The outlook for Europe’s light vehicle production was increased by 39,000 units for 2026, while projections for 2027 were reduced by 53,000 units. This adjustment reflects a more optimistic near-term outlook led by Toyota and Renault, offsetting delays related to Chery model launches. The longer-term forecast includes a noteworthy revision for Tesla, with no expansion planned for its Grünheide plant, capping capacity and reducing output projections.
Greater China
In Greater China, the production outlook was reduced by 16,000 units for 2026 and 96,000 units for 2027. The market is transitioning from expansion to moderation, with early-year retail data showing a decline in sales. The forecast anticipates a 10% production contraction in Q1-2026 due to destocking needs and domestic demand challenges, although exports are expected to provide some support.
Japan/ Korea
Japan's production outlook for 2026 was upgraded by 29,000 units, primarily due to stronger expectations for Toyota and Mazda. In South Korea, production was revised upward by 63,000 units per year from 2026 to 2028, driven by the increasing popularity of hybrid SUVs. This growth is supported by steady demand in the US market, where OEMs are managing tariff-related costs effectively.
North America
North America's light vehicle production outlook was increased by 61,000 units for 2026 and 60,000 units for 2027. The revision reflects a stronger outlook for Stellantis’ Ram brand, driven by pent-up demand for the HEMI V8, among other factors. However, Ford's outlook was reduced by 25,000 units, primarily due to challenges with the T3 truck platform and production shortfalls at Kentucky Truck.
South America
The outlook for South America’s light vehicle production was increased by 28,000 units for 2026, mainly due to stronger-than-expected activity in Brazil. This increase offsets modest weaknesses in Argentina, with overall regional volumes remaining stable through 2028.
South Asia
In South Asia, the production outlook was increased by 24,000 units for 2026 and 31,000 units for 2027. The robust outlook for India is driven by improved domestic demand, aided by reductions in the Goods and Services Tax (GST). However, the ASEAN market faces challenges due to intensifying BEV competition and affordability constraints, leading to a slight downward production revision for that market.
Get more insights from our light vehicle production forecast
S&P Global Mobility's light vehicle production forecast is updated monthly and covers 99% of global light vehicle production. Download a preview to see what we offer.
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
Content Type
Newsletter
Series
Light Vehicle Production Forecast
S&P Global Mobility experts provide guidance on the ramification of new government policies, including tariffs, for the automotive industry