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This release covers S&P Global Mobility US light vehicle
sales estimates for the month of August 2022. S&P Global
Mobility will be reporting these highlights monthly moving
forward.
US Light Vehicle Sales to mark first YOY gain in 12 months,
according to S&P Global Mobility projection
S&P Global Mobility's analyst team is predicting the first
year-over-year gain for new light-vehicle sales for the trailing
year — with an estimate of 1.123 million units, equivalent to a
13.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Moreover, the
increasing consumer acceptance of electric vehicles shows it to be
an increasingly important segment of the market, comprising 6.0% of
the market in August. S&P Global Mobility forecasts that the
rising BEV sales trend will continue. However, the overall August
results are unlikely to signal an easing of challenges facing the
beleaguered automotive industry. Constrained inventories, stemming
from continued supply disruptions, preventing sales from rebounding
more aggressively. At the same time, S&P Global Mobility sees
increasing economic uncertainty crimping fourth-quarter consumer
demand. Double-digit increases in new-vehicle prices are likely
weighing on consumers' willingness to enter the market.
As a result, we believe US auto sales will be limited to a 14.1
million unit total for the year, a downgrade from the 2022 14.6
million unit calendar-year forecast that the S&P Global
Mobility team published in July. On a manufacturer level, August
results are expected to reflect the prevailing market conditions:
Potential for slight month-over-month share advancement for OEMs
that have available supply to sustain sales levels, compared to
continued retrenchment for OEMs struggling from an inventory
standpoint.
Electric vehicle mix reflecting strong momentum
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to reach 6.0% of
light vehicle sales in August, compared to a share of 3.3% mix
level in August 2021. With new model launches and continued high
gas prices despite recent easing, we expect a mix of approximately
6% to be the new floor for BEVs going forward. According to S&P
Global Mobility new registration data, BEV sales surged to 6.6% of
total light vehicle sales volume in June 2022, its highest monthly
share level ever. However, BEVs are subject to the same supply
chain, labor, and logistics issues as their non-electric
counterparts, as well as the sector still in a position of ramping
up capacity versus established non-EV capacity. Therefore, although
momentum is expected to be sustained, monthly share of EVs could be
subject to volatility in the near and medium term.
S&P Global Mobility Sub-Segment Mix
Sport-utility vehicle sales continue to rise at expense of
passenger cars, specifically against sedan and hatchback. SUV mix
is expected to reach more than 55% of August sales volume, up from
53.6% a year ago, and a 54.7% reading from the month prior. Pickup
mix is expected to remain above 20% for the third consecutive month
as new entrants are supporting the segment's strong share.
Contributing to the ongoing car decline has been reduced model
offerings and throttling back of production, a result of automakers
funneling scarce supplies to more lucrative sport-utilities and
trucks.
For more information, contact: automotive@ihsmarkit.com
For the latest on global car sales market performance, please
see the S&P Mobility Global Auto Demand Tracker:
