29 January 2026
January 2026 US auto sales reflect a chilly start to the new year
Article Summary
January 2026 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.13 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility.
New light vehicle sales in January are expected to begin the new year with a moderate result.
January 2026 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.13 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), a drop from the 16.0 million unit SAAR reading in December but also reflective of a pattern from the prior two years; slower January sales following strong year-end close outs.
Looking forward, S&P Global Mobility projects US sales volumes to reach 15.98 million units in 2026, an estimated decline of 2% from the 2025 level of 16.38 million units, as an uncertain environment persists for auto sales levels.
“Weather-related impacts from cold weather and late-month winter storm activity will likely contribute to some of the mild January result,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “Setting up what could be some volatility for the monthly SAAR metric in the first half of 2026.”
January 2026 US auto sales
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
A notable downshift for BEV sales and market share is expected through the first half of 2026, as automakers and consumers adjust to post-incentive conditions. BEV share of sales in January are estimated to be 5.3%. The roll out of new BEV product over the course of 2026 should provide a floor for the downside, but little movement is expected for the sector in the first half.
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and developing new regulatory standards could further temper long-term BEV demand growth.
Looking ahead: The impact of 2026 US auto sales
The 2026 US auto sales market will continue to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. S&P Global Mobility will monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes.
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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.