Automotive aftermarket industry trends 2025: Key insights

Major Light Vehicle Market Sales per 1,000 Population vs. GDP Per Capita, 2024

Automotive Aftermarket Industry Trends: What’s Driving Change?

1. Vehicle Growth and Market Segmentation
   The global number of vehicles in operation (VIO) is projected to continue its upward trajectory, reaching 1.7 billion light vehicles and 85 million medium and heavy commercial vehicles by 2033.
   
   This massive expansion is driven by increasing vehicle longevity, as well as the sheer number of vehicles on the road, particularly in emerging markets like mainland China and India, where growth is expected to outpace other regions.
   
   
2. The Rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs)
   Electric vehicles are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, and by the end of this year, there will be more than 56 million pure electric vehicles on the roads globally.
   
   This growth, at a remarkable 47% increase from 2022, is transforming not only the way we drive but also the aftermarket services needed to maintain these vehicles.
   
   In the coming years, electric vehicles will make up a larger and larger portion of the global vehicle fleet, with CASE vehicles—those that are connected, autonomous, shared, and electrified—taking center stage. The third generation of connected car services is expected to roll out by 2030, further propelling the need for specialized aftermarket solutions.
   
   
3. Technological Advancements in the Aftermarket
   As vehicles become more connected, advanced technologies like advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), over-the-Air (OTA) updates, and predictive maintenance are becoming crucial components of the aftermarket ecosystem.
   
   For the industry to stay competitive, businesses will need to adapt by offering services that support these new technologies. In particular, training in the repair and maintenance of ADAS and keeping up with OTA software updates will be essential for independent aftermarket providers (IAM) to remain relevant.
   
   
4. Regional Differences and Regulatory Shifts
   The automotive aftermarket landscape is also heavily influenced by regional differences in both vehicle adoption and regulatory frameworks. In Europe, a favorable legislative environment supports the growth of IAM, whereas in the US, OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) hold a more dominant position.
   
   This regulatory gap creates significant challenges and opportunities, with businesses needing to consider how they will adapt to different market dynamics in each region.
   
   
5. Preparing for the Future of Aftermarket Services
   With all these changes on the horizon, it’s clear that the aftermarket industry must innovate. This includes investing in training and skills development, enhancing digital service offerings, and developing predictive maintenance solutions.
   
   As the market for ADAS updates and connected services grows, IAM players need to prepare for a new business model that integrates these technologies to meet the demands of tomorrow’s vehicle fleet.

In addition to in-depth analysis of key aftermarket trends, this report also contains a unique and comprehensive assessment of the VIO in mainland China and India, to understand how these fastest-growing countries are going to evolve in the future.

Further, the report presents results from our electrified vehicle survey, which gives us the customer mindset towards transitioning to electric vehicles.    

The report includes exclusive insights from S&P Global Mobility’s Technology VIO Domain (TechVIO) and our Component Forecast Analytics (CFA) platform.