Zero-emission buses reshape EU bus production

Building on rapid growth, the competitive landscape for zero-emission buses in Europe has evolved significantly, with mainland Chinese manufacturers making substantial inroads. Yutong leads zero-emission bus sales in Europe with 15% market share, closely followed by MAN with 13%. Mercedes and BYD cover 12% and 11% respectively.

Together, Chinese brands covered approximately 26% of European zero-emission bus deliveries in 2024, presenting a significant challenge to domestic manufacturers.

As competition intensifies and market dynamics shift, the zero-emission transition is reshaping production strategies. Traditional manufacturers face a stark choice: invest in electrification, which may lead to reduced margins, or yield market share to newcomers.

In response, many are choosing to invest in order to meet the regulatory targets for 2030. These investments in electric drivelines reflect a broader conviction that competitive European production is not only achievable but essential for meeting 2030 regulatory targets.

By 2030, zero-emission buses are projected to account for 53% of total bus production in Europe. This production figure includes city, intercity and coach bus segments, where intercity and coach segments have less stringent CO2 reduction targets.

Also, Europe’s position as a major bus exporter significantly influences these numbers. Manufacturers therefore will continue building conventional drivelines for long distance and export market. Legacy ICE bus production is expected to decrease to around 47%. 

As zero-emission bus volume rises further, the competitive landscape will also evolve. S&P Global Mobility expects that by 2030 there will be three distinct tiers in Europe’s zero-emission bus market:

• European OEMs that successfully navigate the EV transition will occupy premium positions based on proven reliability, comprehensive service networks, and regulatory compliance expertise.
• Next, mainland Chinese manufacturers will strengthen their European foothold through local production and aggressive pricing, particularly in cost-sensitive market segments.
• Finally, a third tier of specialized suppliers will emerge to serve niche applications, including hydrogen fuel-cell variants, and retrofit solutions for extending diesel fleet lifecycles.