28 November 2025
November 2025 US auto sales show little change to sales conditions
Article Summary
November 2025 US auto sales are expected to be down 8% from November 2024.
New light vehicle sales in November are expected to be down from last year.
November 2025 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.26 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.5 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), aligned with the estimated October reading and maintaining the slower pace of demand for the second consecutive month.
On estimated volume of 1.26 million units, November sales would be down over 1% from the estimated October volume of 1.28 million units, and down 8% from the year-ago level.
“US auto sales in November are expected to be unchanged from the month-prior, reflective of current market conditions,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
“The market continues to adjust to lower battery electric vehicle (BEV) volumes following the Q3 selloff, while ever-present new vehicle affordability concerns for consumers remain stubbornly sticky. Automakers are looking to end 2025 on a strong note, but momentum could be hard to find.”
US auto sales in the fourth quarter are expected to be below the strong Q4 2024 result, with full-year 2025 volume estimated at 16.1-16.2 million units.
October 2025 US auto sales
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth.
In the near term, a notable downshift for BEV sales and market share is expected. As anticipated, BEV share advanced from July through September, but a significant drop in adoption is likely in the fourth quarter of 2025 and through the first half of 2026, as automakers and consumers adjust to post-incentive conditions.
BEV share of sales in November are estimated to be 5.3%. Dwindling BEV inventory conditions and a sustained hangover effect from the third quarter sales surge will continue to limit BEV sales over the next 3-4 months.
Looking ahead: the impact of 2025 US auto sales
The 2025 US auto sales market continues to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. S&P Global Mobility will continue to monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes.
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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.