30 March 2026
March 2026 US auto sales – down from year ago and in line with current conditions
Article Summary
March 2026 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.37 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility.
S&P Global Mobility projects that March 2026 US auto sales will realize a notable drop from the March 2025 volume which was boosted by tariff pre-buying activity.
US auto sales are projected to reach approximately 1.37 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.0 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), in line with the 15.8-million unit SAAR reading in February, but well below the 17.9-million unit pace of March 2025.
A drop from the year-ago result was broadly expected; March 2025 underwent a unique auto pre-buy event as savvy consumers reacted to get ahead of potential tariff impacts. Volume in April 2026 is also expected to be meaningfully lower than last year, amplifying the already muted progress for US auto sales at the beginning of 2026.
Looking forward, S&P Global Mobility projects US auto sales volumes to reach 15.9 million units in 2026, an estimated decline of 3% from the 2025 level of 16.38 million units.
“Given current conditions, March 2026 US auto sales are expected to post a solid, but mild, result. While volume is expected to be down nearly 220,000 units compared to last year, we do anticipate some of the usual seasonal boost,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “Unfortunately, uncertainty remains embedded yet again for 2026 as geopolitical events have the potential to sustain vehicle affordability headwinds to auto sales growth rates.”
March 2026 US auto sales
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
A notable downshift for BEV sales and market share is expected through the first half of 2026, as automakers and consumers adjust to post-incentive conditions. BEV share of sales in March are estimated to be 5.2%, sustaining the 5% share BEV averaged since November 2025. The roll out of new BEV product over the course of 2026 should provide a floor for the downside, but little movement is expected for the sector in the first half.
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and developing new regulatory standards could further temper long-term BEV demand growth.
Looking ahead: The impact of 2026 US auto sales
The 2026 US auto sales market will continue to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. S&P Global Mobility will monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes.
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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.