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3 March 2025
The latest insights on Canada’s electric vehicle industry, including details on EV sales in Canada broken down by provinces and major cities.
As 2025 opens, the Canadian automotive market is undergoing a transformative shift toward sustainability. ZEV adoption has reached unprecedented levels, with approximately one out of every six vehicles now classified as a ZEV.
In 2024, Canada witnessed a remarkable increase in ZEV national penetration, which now stands at 15.4%, a significant rise from 11.7% the previous year. This growth is mirrored in BEV penetration, which has increased from 8.8% to 11.4% year-over-year.
Quebec emerges as the ZEV adoption frontrunner, boasting the highest penetration rate at 32.9% and representing 54% of all ZEV registrations in the country. This dominance reflects the province’s aggressive policies and incentives for EV adoption.
The last quarter of 2024 delivered even more impressive results. ZEVs accounted for approximately one out of every five vehicles sold in Canada during Q4 2024, with the national penetration rate climbing to 18.9%, up from 16.5% in Q3 2024. The BEV penetration rate also saw a notable increase, rising from 12.2% to 14.2%.
In Quebec, the ZEV penetration rate soared to 42.0%, with the province now accounting for 60.0% of ZEV registrations nationwide. This surge underscores the effectiveness of Quebec’s policies encouraging consumers to transition to EVs, fueled by consumers rushing to secure CAD$7,000 in incentivizes before they dropped to CAD$4,000 on January 1, 2025.
Quebec’s mandate for 100% ZEV sales by 2035 is the key driver of Canada’s record-high ZEV adoption rate. This ambitious goal is supported by incentives making ZEVs, particularly BEVs, more affordable, along with educational initiatives promoting the benefits of transitioning to zero-emission powertrains.
As of January 2025, however, preliminary data reveals a concerning trend: ZEV registrations in Quebec have begun to decline, with a staggering 65% decrease in BEV volume. This decline suggests that incentives targeting price-sensitive consumers heavily influenced the initial demand. Because these incentives may have reached their peak effectiveness, the sustainability of ZEV adoption in the province remains uncertain.
The market is facing significant challenges due to the discontinuation of both federal and provincial incentives. This issue is particularly evident in Quebec, the largest contributor to ZEV volume. As a result of these changes, BEV volumes plummeted by an alarming 48.3% nationally in January 2025 compared to December 2024.
This downturn has severely impacted major players in the industry, with Tesla seeing a decline of more than 72% and Chevrolet EVs down by more than 65%. Consequently, BEV penetration for January is expected to drop to 10.0%, a marked decrease from December’s rate of 17.8%.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are also struggling, with January registrations reflecting a 27.8% decline from December’s peak. When combined with BEV volumes, national ZEV penetration stands at 13.3% for January.
ZEV adoption across Canada reveals significant disparities in growth rates, market contributions and the effectiveness of provincial policies. Quebec stands out as a leader in ZEV adoption, while other provinces like New Brunswick and Manitoba show promising growth trends. Conversely, British Columbia’s decline in market share signals potential challenges that the province will need to address.
S&P Global Mobility's light vehicle sales forecast covers 145+ sales countries across 11 regions, representing more than 97% of global light vehicle sales volume.
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.