29 December 2025
December 2025 US auto sales close year with lack of momentum
Article Summary
December 2025 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.4 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility..
New light vehicle sales in December are expected to close the year with some, but not a lot, of cheer.
December 2025 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.4 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.4 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), matching the subdued levels of the prior two months and bringing the fourth quarter SAAR average to a reading of 15.4 million units.
This would be the slowest-quarter pace of sales since the first quarter of 2023 and an uneasy step into the new year.
Looking forward, S&P Global Mobility projects US auto sales volumes to reach 15.89 million units in 2026, an estimated decline of 2.5% from the projected 2025 level of nearly 16.3 million units, as an uncertain environment persists for auto sales levels.
“2026 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the auto industry as we progress from the volatile, but relatively solid 2025 result,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility.
“Unfortunately, the new vehicle affordability issues that have pushed against sustained momentum for US auto sales levels over the past two years remain entrenched. An already cautious consumer combined with potential OEM price adjustments translates to expectations that 2026 auto sales will decline from the 2025 level.”
December 2025 US auto sales
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth.
In the near term, a notable downshift for BEV sales and market share is expected. As anticipated, BEV share advanced from July through September, but a significant drop has been noted in the incoming fourth quarter sales. As automakers and consumers adjust to post-incentive conditions, we expect BEV softness through the first half of 2026 also.
BEV share of sales in December is estimated to be 6%. Dwindling BEV inventory conditions after the thrid quarter surge pushed against early fourth quarter share. The expected December level reflects limited progress from November.
Looking ahead: the impact of 2025 US auto sales
The 2026 US auto sales market will continue to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. S&P Global Mobility will monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes.
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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.