S&P Global Mobility predicts strong monthly SAAR for October

"Pockets of vehicle inventory levels continue to improve more quickly than expected from extraordinarily low levels and bring welcome news on the supply side of the equation. However, auto consumers are likely feeling the pressure of current economic headwinds," according to Chris Hopson, Principal Analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While we continue to point to inventory levels as a major factor in stemming immediate-term momentum in auto sales levels, the deteriorating economic conditions are becoming more prevalent."

Hindered by higher interest rate settings and lower levels of jobs growth than previously anticipated, consumers are expected to retrench - thereby becoming a major input factor to auto demand levels over the next 12-18 months. In its October 2022 US Economics update, S&P Global Market Intelligence team has revised downward its projection of real GDP growth in 2023 from 0.9% to -0.5%. The base forecast now includes a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter of this year, with an anemic recovery taking hold in the third quarter of next year.

If there's a silver lining, the potential for faster new-vehicle inventory growth should allow for downward pressure on vehicle pricing and provide some clearance for auto consumers willing to test the market in 2023.