Governments around the world must rely on the rollout of zero-emission trucks to support their climate and energy targets. Despite accounting for just 3.8% of global vehicle sales in 2024, medium- and heavy-commercial vehicles (MHCVs) account for an estimated 39.7% of global road sector CO2 emissions and an estimated 38.7% of global road transport liquids demand. 

Our scenario-based approach aims to demonstrate how economies, the trucking industry, clean energy technology and the policy environment may evolve in various ways throughout the future. In the updated report, the new scenarios have evolved from earlier outlooks; governance and technology are key factors driving this year's narratives. 

• Base Case scenario: A world navigating the instability of the early to mid-2020s while trying to enable an energy transition. Electrification advances, but with ongoing challenges and greater regional variation than in previous outlooks.

• Renaissance scenario: Disrupted by the chaos of the 2020s, the energy transition in Western markets initially lags expectations but later accelerates. Mainland China remains the clean energy leader, though growing competition from emerging markets fuels technological abundance. 

Two scenarios emerged from the updated narratives exploring how technology and governance shape the trucking industry's future:

The instability and uncertainty of the early-to-mid-2020s weigh on the forecast. Weakening political resolve contributes to a delay in the pace of global climate initiatives and the energy transition. Contributing factors include geopolitical turmoil in some regions of the world, tariffs, and a politicized, uneven BEV ramp up. 

Throughout the past 12 to 24 months electrified truck adoption and ecosystem development have diverged across mainland China, Europe and the US. Mainland China has positioned itself as the global leader in truck electrification. Moreover, in both forecast scenarios, the outlook for hydrogen-powered trucks is sharply downgraded, casting doubt on the industry’s 'dual ZEV' strategy over the next decade. 

In addition to these factors, emission regulations and total cost of ownership (TCO) also play a key role in evaluating the future trucking landscape.  Europe’s regulatory roadmap is a key factor in this year’s forecast. Our base case anticipates a loosening of CO2 standards for heavy trucks in Europe. 

With nearly a year under the Trump administration, this report examines how changes to US trucking regulations will shape the industry over the next decade as well. For its part, TCO drives electrified truck adoption in mainland China but remains a major challenge in other RTT markets. 

Despite an time of peak uncertainty and challenges in scaling zero-emission trucks, particularly in the US and to some extent in Europe, the finish line has not significantly changed — only delayed. Administrations change, new leaders take office, regulations reemerge, and sentiment toward clean technology evolves. Still, we find that the fundamental drivers of ZEV technology adoption remain in place, including a favorable long-term cost proposition in many use cases around the world.

Predicting regulations over the mid-to-the-long term gets more challenging with each additional forecast year, and for the report’s longest forecast time horizon, we fall back on how the available technologies will interact with business fundamentals, irrespective of potential mandates and incentives.

As a result, TCO becomes a key factor for evaluating electric and hydrogen truck adoption trends. Several key factors drive fleet decision-making on buying patterns and technology adoption, with cost being crucial in this low-margin industry. 

In this report, we define TCO as the costs associated with purchasing, operating, maintaining and reselling the truck over a six-year period. We acknowledge that incentives and subsidies are available in various global markets to alleviate the high purchase costs associated with new battery-electric and fuel-cell electric trucks. 

However, we do not include them in any of the TCO modeling, first and foremost, in order to enable apples-to-apples comparisons across international regions. There are two versions of our total cost of ownership forecast: one for our Base Case scenario and the other for the alternative Renaissance scenario. 

In the Base Case scenario, the TCO for electrified trucks varies significantly across markets but gradually decreases over time; remains a challenge for near-term adoption in the US and Europe, while in the Renaissance scenario OEMs shift most of their investment toward ZEVs, leading to significant cost and technology improvements, while some emerging markets serve as key sourcing and supply partners. 

The detailed structure of the TCO modeling allows for greater insights and more informed long-term forecasting.

Regional variation is evident among the four RTT markets in the total cost of ownership forecast. Mainland China is emerging as a global leader, with strong competition driving down BEV prices and low electricity prices. In contrast, Western markets like Europe and the United States face high ZEV costs, with diesel and electricity prices significantly influencing the TCO evaluation of ICEs and ZEVs throughout the forecast period. 

The Reinventing the Truck Report analyzes four key trucking markets: Mainland China, Europe, Japan, and the United States. These RTT markets made up 63% of truck sales in 2024, a drop from pre-COVID-19 levels due to lower recent volumes in mainland China. Datasets do not include a breakout of individual European countries. 

How electrification of trucks varies by region:

Mainland China: A global leader in trucking electrification

Mainland China is somewhat of an outlier in this year's report, having successfully driven electrified truck adoption thus far. Mainland China has emerged as the global leader in trucking electrification and is expected to maintain this position, diverging from trends seen in the US. 

Europe: Truck emissions regulations drive uneven electrification 

The European market is caught between addressing the challenges of electrified truck transport and expediting the transition through stringent regulations. However, the European Union is expected to recalibrate its focus, easing back from today’s ambitious targets. Europe currently has a higher BEV share than the US, a trend likely to continue in the mid-term, but still lags behind mainland China. 

Japan: Hydrogen-focused pathways in trucking

The Japanese market is less regulated than others, and the trajectory for ZEV adoption is shaped by several factors that differentiate it from other RTT markets: consolidation of key OEMs, the establishment of partnerships, and a strong emphasis on hydrogen, particularly in the heavy-duty class 8 segment. 

United States: Regulatory uncertainty slows zero-emission truck adoption 

The US trucking regulatory landscape is marked by uncertainty and change, with tariffs and other factors adding complexity. Challenges in adopting electrified trucks show little improvement. Many potential downside risks noted in last year’s report have already materialized.