2025 automotive sales data highlights mixed global trends

Norway is an interesting market, partly because it has the highest share of BEVs. Norwegian passenger vehicle registrations grew by 39.5% y/y in 2025, reaching 179,550 units, up from 128,691 units in 2024, according to automotive sales data published by the country’s Road Traffic Information Council (Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken: OFV). 

December BEV registrations jumped by 157.7% y/y as consumers pulled purchases forward to avoid a January 2026 tax change which lowers incentives in 2026 and eliminates them in 2027. Combined with a sales surge in the final two months, this drove a record full-year total for passenger vehicle registrations. 

Following this exceptional performance, however, S&P Global Mobility’s vehicle sales forecast projects a 13.4% y/y decline in 2026, although vehicle registrations will remain above 2023–2024 and pre-pandemic volumes.

The UK passenger car market grew by 3.5% y/y during 2025, with vehicle registrations reaching 2,020,520 units, up from 1,952,778 units in 2024, according to Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) automotive registration data.

The passenger BEV category continued to rise in 2025, supported by regulations and incentives. SMMT data shows BEV registrations increased by 23.9% y/y to 473,348 units, lifting full-year market share to 23.4% from 19.6% in 2024. A December surge pushed that month’s share to 32.2%. However, BEV registrations in 2025 fell 4.6 percentage points short of the 28% zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) share target. Plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) and hybrids can count toward zero-emission targets, helping automakers close this gap. PHEV registrations grew by 34.7% y/y, increasing market share to 11.1% from 8.6% in 2024, while hybrid vehicle registrations rose by 7.2% y/y. 

The UK passenger car market grew for the third consecutive year in 2025, surpassing the 2-million-unit barrier once again. However, volumes remain well below historical peaks: 12.6% below 2019 and 25% below the 2016 record. Passenger BEV registrations set a record, aided by strong government and OEM incentives, which SMMT reports effectively amounted to £11,000 per vehicle. The UK is without a tariff on BEVs from mainland China, resulting in strong gains from BYD, Chery’s Jaecoo and Omoda brands.

The S&P Global Mobility automotive sales forecast projects that 2026 UK passenger vehicle sales will grow by 4.1% y/y and that the market will rise again in the following year. Our November 2025 Light Vehicle Sales Electrification Summary vehicle sales forecast anticipates a BEV market share of 31.9% in 2026, approaching the 33% ZEV target.

The US light-vehicle market closed 2025 with an estimated 16.3 million units sold, up 2.3% over the 16.04 million units sold in 2024. The market entered the year facing high vehicle prices and interest rates.

Early 2025 policy changes in US trade and automotive regulations created expectations of sharp price increases, but automakers largely held prices steady throughout the year as the US negotiated tariffs and modified implementation; without set policy, automakers chose to absorb the extra costs. Despite this uncertainty, full-year sales finished slightly above our initial automotive sales forecast of 16.2 million units. 

For those asking, “How are auto sales in the US?”, the answer is that despite ongoing affordability challenges, consumer demand showed resilience, keeping overall auto sales modestly above vehicle sales forecasts.  

US federal BEV tax incentives ended Sept. 30, 2025, allowing automakers to adjust near-term product mix and longer-term product plans to support a consumer-driven shift to electrification rather than a regulatory-driven transition. 

The changes will ultimately allow the BEV market to find a more natural demand level. The immediate effect was to pull forward EV purchases in the third quarter, leading to massive BEV sales declines in the fourth quarter. Preliminary data shows fourth-quarter BEV sales declined 1.7% versus 2024, the first drop in the modern BEV era.  

As an uncertain market environment persists, the S&P Global Mobility vehicle sales forecast projects US auto sales volumes to reach 15.9 million units in 2026, down 2.5% from the estimated 16.36 million units in 2025. Uneasy consumers—combined with potential OEM price adjustments—translate to low expectations for 2026 US auto sales.  

Despite improving momentum in several major markets, global automotive sales continue to reflect an automotive sales forecast shaped by regional policy differences, affordability pressures and variations in electrification adoption. While global sales in 2025 finally exceeded the 2019 level, there are headwinds weighing 2026 down, and S&P Global Mobility forecasts that growth in 2026 will be slight, up by 0.2% to 91.86 million units.