How is ADAS influencing collision frequency and repair needs?

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are known to significantly enhance vehicle safety. In recognition of ADAS’ value, several regulatory bodies around the world mandate that all new vehicles include primary ADAS features, including Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB), Lane Departure Warning (LDW), and Lane Keep Assist (LKA) in new vehicles.

For instance, the US National Highway Transport Safety Authority (NHTSA) is mandating LKA and AEB to be mandatory in vehicles by 2029. As the adoption of ADAS vehicle technologies increases, their effectiveness in reducing the frequency and severity of collisions becomes increasingly important to quantify using data assets.

Understanding how ADAS influences the nature of collisions and supports accident prevention is crucial for OEMs, suppliers, and aftermarket leaders. It can help guide product development, enhance safety features, improve repair processes, and support compliance with evolving regulations all while meeting the growing demand for safer vehicles.

The shift in vehicle design, automotive safety and regulatory policy has accelerated ADAS adoption in vehicles coming on the road. Currently, Level 2 ADAS systems are the most popular, comprising 40% of total vehicle sales globally in 2024; That share is projected to reach 62% by 2032. In the US, Level 2 vehicles are expected to account for over 75% of new vehicle sales by 2032. 

As of 2022, there were roughly 64.8 million Level 1 and Level 2 ADAS-equipped vehicles in operation (VIO) worldwide. This number is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% to almost 140 million vehicles by 2032.  

Volume breakdown across autonomy levels

Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are integrating ADAS technology across various models to gain a competitive edge and enhance their image as safety conscious. Key mass-market brands including Honda, Toyota and Ford are focused on expanding their Level 2 capabilities.

At the same time, vehicles are increasingly being equipped with a broader range of ADAS features in pursuit of regulatory compliance and improved safety performance. Luxury brands, however, including Mercedes Benz and BMW, are expanding their ADAS capabilities with planned roll outs of Level 3 and Level 4 vehicles in the near term. 

This rapid growth in ADAS-equipped vehicles is expected to enhance driver safety and convenience while also leading to increased repair complexity and costs.

According to S&P Global Mobility’s Collision Frequency Forecast — as well as autonomous vehicle (AV) collision reports from the California Department of Motor Vehicles — the ratio of fatal collisions to total VIO with any level of autonomy was the highest for Level 0 vehicles, at 0.011%, in the US in 2022. 

This was more than three times that of Level 1 and Level 2 vehicles, at 0.007%, while Level 4 vehicles had the lowest collision ratio at 0.006%.

The projected change in the ADAS VIO fleet is expected to drive down the number of fatal collisions in the US by a CAGR of -2.4%, from 46,400 in 2022 to approximately 33,900 in 2035.

VIO within the range of Level 1 to Level 4 are expected to increase from 65 million to 185 million in this time, with Level 1 and Level 2 VIO accounting for 76% of the final fleet. Meanwhile, VIO without any ADAS are projected to drop from 157 million to 60 million by 2035.

This deeper technology integration will reshape the service industry from a repair and calibration standpoint, given the larger number of VIO equipped with ADAS and, as a result, the number of automotive sensors expected in the market. 

In the US the number of cameras in vehicles is expected to grow at a 4.4% CAGR from 50 million units in 2024 to over 65 million by 2035, while RADAR sensors are expected to register a 2% CAGR, from 39 million to approximately 50 million units in the same period.