2024 US Election: A Republican White House emerges. What's next for the auto industry?

With the 2024 US election over, S&P Global Mobility discusses our expectations for the next four years. At a broad level, these issues are expected to directly affect the US auto industry:

• The perception of an existential threat from mainland Chinese automakers and technology companies;
• Positions on environmental policy, particularly as relates to vehicle emissions and safety regulations;
• Trade policy as it relates to both USMCA and potential for national security tariffs; and
• Positions relative to unions and labor.

In our updated special report, we discuss how we see several key areas unfolding under this Republican White House. While the winner of the US presidency has now been resolved, it is just one piece of a complex environment, and we still advise that a scenario mindset remains critical for stakeholder decision-making. Critical decisions need to consider business and market demand issues in the context of upper and lower bounds derived from plausible scenarios, along with a baseline forecast.

We expect to see that one dominant trait of the incoming White House Administration will be speed, and pressure to rethink how things are done to make sure change happens faster.

The new Administration will challenge old norms and assumptions. Under President Trump's first term, he pushed for legislative and executive order changes to happen more quickly and made decisions faster than most previous presidents. It is likely that trait will be accentuated with the second term. The executive branch agencies are expected to be pushed to speed processes and reach conclusions faster, with a goal of implementing changes to regulations more quickly.

For the auto industry, there is a likelihood that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) develop rule-making proposals much more quickly. However, there are legally-defined provisions for getting public feedback which may not be able to be shortened. But the agencies can be pushed to develop analysis and proposals much faster than has traditionally been made

As procedures are written today, steps may not be able to be skipped, but the time allocated and methods by which research and validation of proposals are undertaken move much more quickly. And it should not be presumed that it is impossible to change some of the procedural requirements.

Our special report offers a deep dive into the following topics:

• The first 100 days under the new Administration
• 2028+ federal emissions and fuel economy regulations
• Inflation Reduction Act funding future
• Mainland China sourcing tariffs, and potential for Mexico tariffs
• California: Does its ability to regulate emissions continue?
• 2026 USMCA Review
• Assumptions affecting total industry volume (TIV)
• Autonomous vehicles: Regulatory wild card