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Daily Index Insights

iBoxx USD Asia Ex-Japan Monthly Commentary: April 2025

iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Monthly Commentary: April 2025

iBoxx Asian Local Currency Indices Monthly Commentary: April 2025

U.S. Equities Market Attributes April 2025

Commentary - May 20, 2025

Daily Index Insights

Benedek Vörös

Director, Index Investment Strategy

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Daily Index Insights offers a concise two-minute read on the latest news and trends in index markets. This resource includes performance data from S&P Dow Jones Indices across equities, fixed income, multi-asset, commodities, and factors. Our daily insights are designed to provide you with a comprehensive understanding of market movements, empowering you to make informed decisions based on the most current indices data and analysis.

The new edition of The Market Measure is LIVE! Check it out here.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”

John Stuart Mill (20 May 1806 – 8 May 1873)

Today we celebrate universal benchmarks! The 17-country "Metre Convention” culminated on 20 May 1875 with an international treaty creating the International Bureau of Weights and Measures, which would go on to oversee official units of distance, weight and (eventually) a wide range of scientific and commercial measures. Bringing you the SI units of market performance, here is your daily dashboard.

Having started trading down over 1%, the S&P 500® gradually climbed throughout the trading day to close up 0.1%, its 6^th up day in a row. Health Care stood out with a 1.0% gain, while Energy gave up 1.3%.

Last Week Leaders & Laggards: S&P 500 Sectors & Factors

The S&P 500, still in the red YTD a week ago, is now up 1.9% in 2025, but U.S. mid-, and small-caps are still underwater with the S&P SmallCap 600® down 6%. International equities are significantly ahead of U.S. stocks; the S&P Europe 350® and the S&P Latin America 40 stand out in particular, up 20% and 25%, respectively, so far this year. Fixed income markets are marginally up YTD on both sides of the Atlantic, while the broad S&P GSCI Commodities Index is down 1% despite gold’s 22% rally.

Last Week Leaders & Laggards: S&P 500 Sectors & Factors

The underperformance of U.S. small caps didn’t start just this year: the S&P SmallCap 600 lagged the S&P 500 by 42% in the past three years. Outside of the dot com bubble the only other time when small caps trailed blue chips by this wide a margin was a brief period in September 2020.

Last Week Leaders & Laggards: S&P 500 Sectors & Factors

And finally: Happy Birthday to the S&P Composite 1500® which turned 30 over the weekend! Hamish Preston celebrated the occasion with an informative blog, reflecting on the index’s performance, characteristics and potential applications.

Last Week Leaders & Laggards: S&P 500 Sectors & Factors

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Commentary - May 08, 2025

iBoxx USD Asia Ex-Japan Monthly Commentary: April 2025

Jessica Tan

Principal, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Featuring iBoxx USD Asia-Pacific

April 2025 Commentary

Following the unveiling of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” on more than 180 countries at the start of April, China and the EU, among others, responded with retaliatory tariffs, leading to increased market volatility and a global sell-off. The S&P 500^® whipsawed in April, diving below 5,000 points before rebounding back above 5,500, bringing its monthly and YTD return to -0.76% and -5.31%, respectively. Despite signs of the U.S. economy contracting and cooling inflation in March, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, concerned with a potential sharp rise in inflation due to the tariffs. In the Asia-Pacific region, central banks in India, the Philippines, Thailand and New Zealand sought to prepare their economies for the impact of U.S. tariffs by cutting rates by 25 bps.

Most Asian currencies appreciated against the U.S. dollar in April, except for the Indonesian rupiah. After gaining 4.60% in the first quarter, the Japanese yen continued to gain 4.32% in April, driven by demand for safe-haven assets.

10-Year U.S. Treasury yields—as represented by the iBoxx USD Treasuries Current 10-Year—dipped to 4.20% (down 6 bps in April, down 42 bps YTD). The index was up 0.77% and 4.52% for the month and year, respectively.

Chinese equities—as represented by the S&P China 500 (USD)—had their worst month of the year in April (down 4.24%), dragging their YTD gain to 2.16%. Meanwhile, Chinese-issued U.S. dollar bonds—as represented by the iBoxx USD Asia ex-Japan China—gained 0.25% in April and 2.75% YTD.

iBoxx USD Asia Ex-Japan Monthly Commentary: April 2025: Exhibit 1

The Asian U.S. dollar bond market concluded the month up 0.14%, with a 0.29% gain from investment grade bonds and 0.88% loss from high yield bonds. In terms of the one-year return, high yield bonds continued to lead in performance (up 9.24%) among the three broad categories, followed by the overall market (up 7.68%) and the investment grade segment (up 7.43%).

China Real Estate clocked its third consecutive month of gains, posting 0.32% in April. It also stood out as one of the best-performing segments in the past one-year period, up 21.98%. The APAC ex-China U.S. dollar bond market outperformed the Asian ex-Japan U.S. dollar bond market by 2 bps in April but lagged by 20 bps for the past one-year period.

Short to medium maturity investment grade bonds delivered positive performances in April, while long-dated investment grade bonds with maturities of 10 years or more declined for a second straight month, mirroring the trend of U.S. Treasuries. All high yield maturity segments reported losses in April, except for most ultrashort 0-1 year segments.

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Commentary - May 07, 2025

iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Monthly Commentary: April 2025

Catalina Zota

Director, Fixed Income Product Management

S&P Dow Jones Indices

April 2025 Commentary

Market Overview

April was marked by turmoil across global markets as “Liberation Day” came, and the U.S. imposed a minimum 10% tariff across all countries. The S&P 500^® went into correction territory and lost 10.53% in two days, recovering later in the month to close April at 5,569.06, a -0.76% loss. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.48% before settling down to 4.17% at the end of the month. Reinforcing the market volatility was the 0.3% decrease of the U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 due to the increase in imports ahead of the tariffs going into effect and the decrease in government spending. While the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Across the globe, countries responded to U.S. protectionism by refocusing on their domestic economies. The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 bps, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.25%. In the process, the EU declared its readiness to both start negotiations and protect the growth of the eurozone economy from further tariff impacts by applying reciprocal tariffs.

In Latin America, Mexico’s GDP growth was slashed to 0.5% while Brazil’s was revised down to 2.0% due to persistent inflation and a slowdown in global growth. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI went up to 58.2, influenced by a sharp rise in new businesses and the movement of manufacturing from China to India. The S&P Global ASEAN Manufacturing PMI slipped below 50 to 48.7, signaling a deterioration in operating conditions and reduced purchasing activity.

iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Monthly Commentary: April 2025: Exhibit 1

April proved to be a tumultuous month for emerging markets, characterized by fluctuating tariffs and market instability. The Overall benchmark saw a decline of 0.08%, heavily influenced by the Corporate HY index, which recorded the worst performance among tracked indices at -1.10%. The sell-off in high yield corporate bonds had a cascading effect, leading to negative results in the Overall HY category, which posted a decline of 0.36%, alongside Corporates at -0.33%. However, within the high yield space, Sovg & Sub-Sovg HY managed to post a modest gain of 0.31%. In contrast, investment grade securities demonstrated a stronger performance, driven by the market’s flight to safety. The Sovg & Sub-Sovg IG rose to 0.09%, 7 bps lower than its benchmark. The Liquid Sovg & Sub-Sovg outperformed its benchmark by 1 bp (please refer to the Appendix at the end of this document for the abbreviated index names).

The overarching theme for April was one of uncertainty and mixed results. Yields among the top 10 emerging market economies generally trended upward, with South Korea being the exception, as it experienced a drop of 4 bps, bringing the overall yield for the country’s bonds to 4.69%. Turkey saw the highest yield increase, up 23 bps, followed closely by Mexico, which rose by 22 bps compared to the previous month. Returns in April were subdued, with South Korea gaining 0.49%, followed by Indonesia at 0.44% and China at 0.24%. Year-to-date, Saudi Arabia led the pack with a return of 2.90%.

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Commentary - May 07, 2025

iBoxx Asian Local Currency Indices Monthly Commentary: April 2025

Kangwei Yang

Director, Fixed Income Product Management

S&P Dow Jones Indices

iBoxx ALBI, iBoxx ABF and iBoxx SGD

April 2025 Commentary

It was a volatile landscape across major financial markets following what is now known as “Liberation Day.” The S&P 500^® experienced a late-April rebound and closed 0.76% down for the month, fueled by positive corporate earnings and increasing optimism regarding a potential softening of the U.S. administration’s stance on tariffs.

U.S. Treasury yields also experienced significant fluctuations, as exhibited in the iBoxx $ Treasuries index, which saw its yield rise to 4.64% on April 11, before retreating to 4.35% at the end of the month. This sentiment shift was associated with the improved tariff outlook as well as increased likelihood of near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. By the end of April, the iBoxx $ Treasuries index inched up by 0.59%.

Despite the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., the Chinese stock and bond market demonstrated relative stability, supported by a strengthening domestic economy. The S&P China 500 (USD) was down as much as 11.58% in the early parts of April, but bounced back to close at -4.24% at the end of the month, potentially influenced by signals of improvements in trade negotiations between Chinese and U.S. officials. Chinese bonds, as represented by iBoxx ALBI China Onshore, posted slight gains of 0.96%.

Several central banks around the world have also responded by adjusting their key policy rates. This includes the European Central Bank (ECB), which decreased its rate by 0.25% to 2.25%, along with major Asian markets like India (down 0.25% to 6.00%) and the Philippines (down 0.25% to 5.50%).

iBoxx Asian Local Bond Index (ALBI)

March 2025 Commentary

iBoxx Asian Local Currency Indices: Monthly Commentary: Exhibit 1

April proved to be another positive month for Asian local markets, as indicated by the iBoxx Asian Local Bond Index (ALBI), which recorded a gain of 2.81% in unhedged USD terms. This performance again outpaced the 0.59% returns of U.S. Treasuries. The increases were fueled by growth across all local markets, along with foreign exchange gains against the U.S. dollar in most regions, with the exception of the Indonesian rupiah and the renminbi, including Offshore RMB.

In the local bond markets, India maintained its position as the top performer, rising by 2.15%, while South Korea followed closely with a gain of 1.70%. In contrast, the Philippines and China Offshore were the weakest performers, even though they still recorded modest gains of 0.34% and 0.58%, respectively.

This month, all maturity segments—short, medium and long—showed gains across the markets. Among these, the long-dated segments showed the most significant increases, with China Onshore 10+ Year bonds posting a return of 3.70%, while Singapore 10+ Year bonds increased 2.64%.

By the end of April, the overall index yield declined by 17 bps to 3.41%. Indonesia continued its status as the highest-yielding market, recording a yield of 6.91%, while China Onshore continued to be the lowest-yielding market at 1.76%.

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Commentary - May 05, 2025

U.S. Equities Market Attributes April 2025

Howard Silverblatt

Senior Index Analyst, Product Management

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Key Highlights

The S&P 500^® was down 0.76% in April, bringing its YTD return to -5.31%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average^® lost 3.17% for the month and was down 4.41% YTD.
The S&P MidCap 400^® decreased 2.32% for the month, bringing its YTD return to -8.63%.
The S&P SmallCap 600^® returned -4.28% in April and was down 13.19% YTD.

Index Returns - U.S. Equities April 2025: Exhibit 1

Market Snapshot

The market spent the month watching and reacting to short-term events in Washington, policy announcements and other changes, and it reacted strongly. The S&P 500 posted a decline of 0.76% (-0.68% with dividends) after March’s -5.75% (-5.63%), February’s -1.42% (-1.30%) and January’s broad 2.70% gain (2.78%). The three-month return turned negative, at -7.80%
(-7.50%), as the YTD return was -5.31% (-4.92%), with the one-year gain at 10.59% (12.10%); the 2024 gain was 23.31% (25.02%). April’s total return decline of 0.68% would have been a decline of 0.78% without the Magnificent 7, and the YTD 4.92% decline would have been a decline of 0.29% without them.

The S&P 500 fell for its third consecutive month, as the tariff policy changed numerous times, which added significant volatility to the market. The S&P 500 entered bear territory (off 20%) on an intraday basis (-21.35% low on April 7 of 4,835.04, and high on Feb. 19 at 6,147.43), but it never closed there (bull and bear classifications are based on closing prices). April posted gains for 13 of its 21 trading days, compared to 10 of 21 last month. Breadth decreased, as 168 issues were up and 331 were down, compared to March’s 154 up and 349 down, February’s 248 up and 255 down and January’s 355 up and 148 down; year-to-date, 198 issues were up and 305 were down. Trading increased 7% over March and was up 52% over April 2024.

For April, 5 of the 11 sectors increased, after 2 of the 11 gained last month, 6 of 11 gained in February and 10 of 11 gained in January. Information Technology did the best for the month, up 1.58% (down 11.51% YTD and up 20.21% from the end of 2023), and Energy did the worst, down 13.73% (-5.71% YTD and -3.53% from the 2023 close).

Target prices ticked down slightly, even as the market declined significantly, as the S&P 500’s one-year Street consensus target price declined 4.8% to 6,543, a 17.5% gain (22.4% last month) from the current price and down from last month’s 6,869 (6,905 the month before that). The Dow^®’s target price also slightly declined, down 4.6%, to USD 46,810, a 15.1% gain (16.8% last month) from the current price (49,056, 49,391).

News on tariffs and their market impact (currencies, commodities, derivatives, equity, fixed income) was global and daily, as reactions to rumors, commentary and actions were at historically high levels (volume and volatility).

After the close on Wednesday, April 2, 2025 (with the S&P 500 at 5,670.79), Trump spoke at the White House Rose Garden, announcing reciprocal tariffs in what he declared “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy. Trump set a base 10% tariff on all imports to the U.S. Canada and Mexico were exempt from the 10% but were still subject to the 25% tariff on goods not covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump then added higher rates for 60 specific countries based on a combination of their tariffs, VATs or government support. China’s tariff was 34% (resulting in some products being as high 79%), while the EU was 20%, Japan 24% and Vietnam 46%.

Few had expected the impact to be as massive as it was. While most saw the situation as a work (or negotiation) in progress, the flight to safety was quantifiable. U.S. markets opened lower on heavy trading and closed down 4.84%, as 95 issues gained and 407 fell, and the S&P 500 lost USD 2.33 trillion for the day. Global market decreases included France at -3.31%, Germany -3.01%, Japan -2.77% and Hong Kong -1.52%, with gold at -1.16%, Bitcoin -6.99% and the U.S. dollar lower against almost all currencies.

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