The evolution of the EV consumer

CERAweek: Range anxiety has been replaced by charging time and user experience concerns

Are battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) a product of industry innovation or of governmental policy intervention?

That was the question polled of an audience of industry experts at CERAweek by Andrew Fulbrook, S&P Global Mobility vice president for sustainable mobility. (You have to read to the end to see the audience reaction.)

Mihai Dorobantu, director of technology planning and government affairs for Eaton's Vehicle Group, said that it hasn't been so much governmental mandate as a compass direction rather than the main driver for innovation in the auto industry.

"Without significant external intervention, (BEVs) will not happen. But without a compass, it's not going to be efficient if each OEM comes with its own solution," Dorobantu said. "Ten years ago, an EV was a glorified golf cart. Now it's a high-performance vehicle."

One unintended consequence of the push toward battery-electric, however, has been that some automakers could shift R&D capex away from other propulsion developments, said Chris Bennett, global head of ESG Strategy and M&A for S&P Global Sustainable1.

By focusing so intently on BEV technology, "Are we missing other ways to reduce emissions because we are allocating resources elsewhere? Are we missing something that could have some impact today?" Bennett asked.

The panel gave a brief moment of grudging respect to Toyota for its willingness to test multiple technologies—even though its unwillingness to fully commit to EVs has earned it scorn in the media and among some government officials and environmental groups.

As EV technology improves and market share grows, data are showing an evolution in the concerns of potential buyers, Fulbrook noted.

The key issue is no longer range anxiety and/or finding a charger; now the concern is how long it takes to recharge. "I'm not seeing headlines about EV owners going back to internal combustion because of long charging times," Dorobantu said.

S&P Global Mobility estimates there are about 126,500 Level 2 and 20,431 Level 3 charging stations in the United States today, plus another 16,822 Tesla Superchargers and Tesla destination chargers. Even looking at EV sales growth by 2025—just three years away—S&P Global expects there will need to be about 700,000 Level 2 and 70,000 Level 3 chargers deployed, including public and restricted-use facilities.

If the infrastructure improves sufficiently to allow most people to recharge at work or home, and only on road trips does the recharge time factor matter, smart travel planning can accommodate for those worries, said Christel Galbrun-Noel, mobility segment president for Schneider Electric.

Even that elapsed-time concern is fading somewhat; more complaints are arising regarding the charging experience—issues surrounding software and hardware glitches, non-acceptance of credit cards at charging stations, or needing multiple smartphone apps for differently branded chargers, Galbrun-Noel said.

Digitizing the charging network with a network-agnostic app or having the vehicle's head unit be able to communicate with every network will solve that concern, Galbrun-Noel added. Once those issues are solved, EVs will have a better way to cross the chasm into the mainstream.

As for the audience vote? They overwhelmingly believed EVs were the result of "policy intervention." Then again, the ratio of audience members who own electric vehicles was barely 10%. Confirmation bias, perhaps?

-- By Mark Rechtin, executive director and executive editor, S&P Global Mobility

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.